Coordination and order risk assessment of water and land resource system based on periphery and synergetics theories  

作　　者：Qiuxiang Jiang Zhimei Zhou Zilong Wang Qiang Fu Youzhu Zhao Tian Wang 

机构地区：[1]School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin,150030,China

出　　处：《International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering》2018年第3期146-153,共8页国际农业与生物工程学报（英文）

基　　金：This work was supported by Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.E2016004);National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51679040);University Nursing Program for Young Scholars with Creative Talents in Heilongjiang Province of China(No.UNPYSCT-2017022);Postdoctoral Scientific Research Developmental Fund of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.LBH-Q17022).

摘　　要：Coordinated and orderly water and land resource system is vital to ensure the economic and social development of a region.Grain production in Heilongjiang Province has increased consecutively every year since 2003,and numerous water and land resource-related problems have become increasingly prominent and have had significant adverse effects on social and economic development and stability in the region.In this study,Heilongjiang Province and its 13 prefecture-level cities were selected as the study area,and the degrees of coordination of the social,economic and ecological subsystems were evaluated using periphery theory and the theory of synergetics.To ensure that the assessment was objective and accurate,weights were calculated using the projection pursuit technique,and similarity degrees were calculated using a modified(by introducing the chi-square distance)order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)technique.Moreover,to reflect the variations in the overall degree of coordination in Heilongjiang Province,the risk level of the coordination of the water and land resource system was predicted through the year 2020 using a dynamic neural network.This study provides a reference for establishing effective and balanced coordination between society and water and land resources.

关 键 词：water and land resources periphery theory COORDINATION particle swarm optimization neural network 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]