预期寿命延长、延迟退休与福利改善  

Life Expectancy Extension,Postponing Retirement and Welfare Improvement

作　　者：胡宏兵[1] 高娜娜 HU Hongbing;GAO Nana(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;School of Economics,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]河南大学经济学院,河南开封475004

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2021年第5期63-74,112,159,160,共15页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目“基于自然利率的地方政府专项债定价机制研究”(20BJY253)。

摘　　要：预期寿命的延长使我国居民的养老风险增加,居民个体福利改善受到制约。本文基于脆弱性测度方法构建包含不确定寿命和延迟退休的福利测度框架,研究预期寿命增加造成的个体福利损失,分析延迟退休的福利改善效果,并分性别测算最佳退休延迟年数。结果显示,随着预期寿命的延长,福利损失程度较高个体比例逐渐增多。引入延迟退休因素后,个体福利状况得到改善,且女性和教育水平较高个体的福利改善更为明显。以福利损失小于5%、10%或15%临界值进行估计,不同年龄段男性和女性的最佳退休延迟年数存在差异,男性延迟年数普遍长于女性。本研究为合理制定延迟退休政策以应对预期寿命延长和人口老龄化带来的负面冲击,进而提高居民福利水平提供了政策启示。The extension of life expectancy increases the pension risk of Chinese residents,and the improvement of personal welfare has been severely constrained.Based on the vulnerability measurement method,this paper constructs a welfare measurement framework including uncertain life expectancy and delayed retirement,studies the individual welfare losses caused by the increase in life expectancy,analyzes the welfare improvement effects of postponing retirement,and estimates the optimal retirement postponing years by gender.The results show that as the years of life expectancy increases,the proportion of individuals with higher levels of welfare loss increases gradually.After introducing the factor of postponing retirement,the welfare situation of individuals has been improved,and the welfare improvement of women and individuals with higher education level is more obvious.Estimated by the welfare loss of less than critical value 5%,10%or 15%,the optimal retirement postponing for men and women of different age groups is different.The optimal retirement postponing for men is generally longer than that of women.The conclusion of this paper provides a policy enlightenment for formulating the postponing retirement policy in response to the extension of life expectancy,the aging of the population,and the improvement of the welfare level of the residents.

关 键 词：预期寿命 长寿风险 延迟退休 福利水平 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济] F061[经济管理—国民经济]