气候与下垫面变化对叶尔羌河源流径流的影响  

Effects of climate and underlying surface changes on runoff of Yarkant River Source

作　　者：任才 龙爱华[1,2] 於嘉闻[1,2] 尹振良 张继[1,2] REN Cai;LONG Aihua;YU Jiawen;YIN Zhenliang;ZHANG Ji(College of Water and Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,Xinjiang,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境与资源研究所内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2021年第5期1373-1383,共11页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404301,2016YFA0601602);新疆维吾尔自治区流域规划委员会重大咨询项目(403-1005-YBN-FT6I,403-1005-YBN-FT6I-2,403-1005-YBN-FT6I-7);中国工程院咨询项目(2020-XY-41)。

摘　　要：以叶尔羌河流域上游河源区为研究区,构建嵌入了冰川模块的SWAT分布式水文模型,对卡群水文站1968—2017年逐月径流进行模拟,评价该模型在研究区内的适用性,基于模拟结果分析研究区冰川径流年际变化与年内分布情况,并定量核算气候和下垫面变化对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:该模型在研究区径流模拟中具有良好的适用性,校准期(1968—1992年)与验证期(1993—2017年)的决定系数(R2)分别为0.77和0.86,纳什系数(NSE)分别为0.76和0.85,均方根误差与实测值标准差的比值(RSR)分别为0.49和0.38,偏差百分比(PBIAS)分别为-7.4%和0.6%。经模拟,研究区近50 a冰川径流量总体呈增加趋势,且其占总径流量的比重约为51.1%;年内冰川产流主要发生在6—9月,占全年冰川径流量的90.0%以上。气候和下垫面变化分别使月径流量增加6.62 m^(3)·s^(-1)和0.41 m^(3)·s^(-1),其中气候变化的贡献率为94.2%,即气候变化对研究区径流的影响占主导地位。研究成果可为理解研究区的历史径流变化成因及预测未来径流的演变趋势提供科学依据。Climate and underlying surface changes are the main factors affecting the changes in the hydrological cycle of a river basin.Research on the response of the runoff evolution to climate and underlying surface changes at different temporal and spatial scales is the basis of water resource planning and management.This study took the upper reaches of the Yarkand River Basin in Xinjiang,China as the study area,constructed a SWAT distributed hydrological model embedded with glacier modules,and simulated the monthly runoff from 1968 to 2017 at the Kaqun Hydrological Station to evaluate the model’s applicability in the study area.The simulation results were used to analyze the interannual variability and the intra-year distribution of the glacier runoff in the study area and quantitatively calculate the contribution rate of climate and underlying surface changes to runoff changes.The results show that the model has good applicability during the runoff simulation in the study area.The R2 during the calibration period from 1968 to 1992 and the verification period from 1993 to 2017 was 0.77 and 0.86,respectively;the NSE was 0.76 and 0.85,respectively;the RSR was 0.49 and 0.38,respectively;and the PBIAS was-7.4%and 0.6%,respectively.The simulation showed that the glacier runoff in the study area generally increased in the past 50 years,with the proportion of the total runoff being approximately 51.1%.The glacier runoff mainly occurred from June to September of the year,accounting for 90.0%of the annual glacier runoff.The changes in climate and land use increased the monthly runoff by 6.62 m^(3)·s^(−1) and 0.41 m^(3)·s^(−1),respectively.The contribution rate of climate change is 94.2%,depicting that the impact of climate change on the runoff in the study area is dominant.The research results can provide a scientific basis for understanding the causes of the historical runoff changes in the study area and predicting the future runoff evolution trends.

关 键 词：气候变化 下垫面变化 SWAT模型 冰川径流模拟 叶尔羌河流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]