大口径舰炮研制技术风险评估及后果仿真  

Technology Risk Assessment and Its Consequence Simulation forthe Development of Large-Caliber Naval Gun

作　　者：张满慧 姚忠[1] 曹中臣[1] 张建斌 汪永忠[1] ZHANG Manhui;YAO Zhong;CAO Zhongchen;ZHANG Jianbin;WANG Yongzhong(Northwest Institute of Mechanical&Electrical Engineering,Xianyang 712099,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]西北机电工程研究所,陕西咸阳712099

出　　处：《火炮发射与控制学报》2021年第3期93-99,共7页Journal of Gun Launch & Control

摘　　要：为合理度量大口径舰炮研制中所隐藏的技术风险,对其进行风险评估及后果仿真研究。将大口径舰炮研制的关键技术分解为模块化总体、火力优化、弹药储运总体集成、全电驱动、综合保障、智能化和隐身技术,并定性识别出了技术创新、引入和集成三项风险因素。采用模糊评价方法,建立了舰炮关键技术的风险评估流程,仿真结果表明大口径舰炮的综合风险为一般程度,可开展新型号研制。基于风险因子给出了大口径舰炮研制的技术风险后果评估流程,仿真结果指出:虽然舰炮总体风险级别较低,但其各项关键技术的风险都略微增长,尤其是智能化技术需进行风险处理。研究结果可为大口径舰炮研制提供全寿命周期技术风险指导。A risk assessment and consequence simulation study was conducted in order to reasonably measure the hidden technical risks in the development of large-caliber naval gun.Firstly,the key technology of large-caliber naval gun development is divided into modularization,firepower optimization,the overall integration of ammunition storage and transportation,all-electric drive,integrated support,intelligentization and stealth technology.Meanwhile,the three risk factors of technical innovation,technical importation and technical integration are identified qualitatively.Secondly,based on fuzzy evaluation method,the risk assessment flowchart was constructed for the key technology of the naval gun,the simulation results show that the overall risk of the large-caliber naval gun is at the general level,and the development of the new model can be carried out.Thirdly,the risk factors were used to establish the risk consequence assessment process of the large-caliber naval gun.The simulation results show that the overall risk level of the large-caliber naval gun is lower,but the risk of each key techno-logy is slightly increased,especially the intelligentization technology needs risk treatment.The obtained results of this study can provide guidance for the whole life cycle technical risk in the development of large-caliber naval gun.

关 键 词：舰炮 技术风险 风险评估 模糊评价 风险因子 

分 类 号：TJ391[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]