互联网推动了居民消费升级吗——基于广东省城市消费搜索指数的研究  

Does Internet Contribute to the Consumption Upgrading of Residents?——Research based on City Consumption Search Index in Guangdong Province

作　　者：曾洁华 钟若愚[1] Zeng Jie-hua;Zhong Ruo-yu

机构地区：[1]深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心

出　　处：《经济学家》2021年第8期31-41,共11页Economist

摘　　要：本文以广东省21个地级市为例,利用百度指数构建了各城市的消费搜索指数,根据指标趋势将城市划分为较发达城市和下沉市场。在此基础上,基于2014—2019年的市级消费面板数据和北大普惠金融指数,结合面板回归和AIDS模型探索互联网发展与居民消费升级的关系。研究发现:互联网发展总体上能推动居民消费潜力的释放和消费结构的优化,进而促进居民消费升级,广东省整体上属于第Ⅱ阶段消费升级(个性化消费升级)。不同类别城市间存在明显的异质性,互联网发展有助于较发达城市居民消费结构的进一步优化和调整,呈现第Ⅲ阶段升级特征(理性化消费);下沉市场大体上显现从第Ⅰ阶段向第Ⅱ阶段过渡的消费升级特征,互联网对消费潜力的释放和消费结构改善方面均呈现显著促进作用。This article takes 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province as examples, uses Baidu Index to construct consumer search indexes for each city, and divides the cities into more developed cities and sinking markets according to the trend of the indicators. On this basis, based on the city-level consumer panel data from 2014 to 2019 and the Peking University Inclusive Finance Index, this article combines panel regression and the AIDS model to explore the relationship between Internet development and consumer consumption upgrades. The study finds that the development of the Internet can generally promote the release of residents’ consumption potential and the optimization of consumption structure, thereby promoting the upgrading of residents’ consumption. Guangdong Province as a whole belongs to the second stage of consumption upgrade(personalized consumption upgrade). There is obvious heterogeneity between different types of cities. The development of the lnternet will help the further optimization and adjustment of the consumption structure of residents in more developed cities, showing the characteristics of the third stage of upgrading(rational consumption). The sinking market generally shows the characteristics of consumption upgrading from the first stage to the second stage, and the Internet has shown a significant role in promoting the release of consumption potential and the improvement of consumption structure.

关 键 词：消费升级 消费搜索指数 互联网发展 下沉市场 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]