“十四五”时期中国财政空间研究——基础条件、国际比较与维持策略  

Research on China’s Fiscal Space during the "14th Five Year Plan" Period——Basic Conditions, International Comparison and Maintenance Strategies

作　　者：何代欣[1,2] He Dai-xin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院大学商学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2021年第8期61-70,共10页Economist

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“积极财政政策松弛地方政府借款约束的理论机制、趋势预测及管控策略”(71973149);国家高端智库建设项目“‘十四五’财政政策空间研究”(2021)。

摘　　要：财政空间是健全目标优化、分工合理、高效协同的宏观经济治理体系的基础条件之一。"十四五"时期我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化,维持财政空间的基础条件与以往不同。研究发现,我国债务空间随统计口径扩大有所收窄,而多个口径下的财政赤字都处于上升通道。与同时期人均GDP10000美元的国家相比,中国基础财政盈余率均值(2012—2019年)为-3.57%高出世界平均水平-1.86%近一倍,但债务负担率均值(2010—2019年)为35.50%仅相当于世界平均水平66.37%的一半左右。财政赤字上升源于积极财政政策导向下的年度财政扩张。而债务负担率水平相对较低,又得益于积极财政政策为代表的宏观调控,推动了经济总量不断增大。研究认为,未来维持中国财政政策空间的政策部署,要与财政在宏观调控中的定位匹配,要关注货币政策、金融政策等主要宏观政策变化,还要加强财政资源整合并提升流动性。Fiscal space is one of the basic conditions for improving the macroeconomic governance system with optimized objectives, reasonable division and efficient coordination during the period of the "14 th Five Year Plan", China’s development environment is facing profound and complex changes, and the basic conditions for maintaining fiscal space are different from the past. It is found that China’s debt space has narrowed with the expansion of statistical caliber, and the fiscal deficit under multiple caliber is in the rising channel. Compared with countries with per capita GDP of US $10000 in the same period, China’s average fiscal base surplus ratio(2012-2019) is-3.57%, nearly double the world average of-1.86%, but the average debt burden ratio(2010-2019) is 35.50%, only half of the world average of 66.37%. The rise of fiscal deficit is due to the annual fiscal expansion under the guidance of active fiscal policy. The relatively low level of debt burden ratio is also due to the macro-control represented by the active fiscal policy, which promotes the continuous increase of economic aggregate. The research shows that the policy deployment to maintain China’s fiscal policy space in the future should match the fiscal positioning in macro-control, pay attention to major macro policy changes such as monetary policy and financial policy, and strengthen the integration of fiscal resources and enhance liquidity.

关 键 词：财政空间 基础财政盈余率 财政赤字 债务负担率 宏观调控 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学]