中日农产品贸易流量变化及影响因素研究  

Research on the Change of Agricultural Trade Flow and its Influencing Factors between China and Japan

作　　者：徐晨莹 余赵寅 熊伟 XU Chenying;YU Zhaoyin;XIONG Wei(College of Economics and Management,Zhejiang A&F University;Longquan Forestry Administration)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院 [2]龙泉市林业局

出　　处：《中国商论》2021年第18期4-7,共4页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：文章选取2001—2019年农产品贸易流量以及11项细分农产品贸易量的变化进行分析,运用贸易引力模型对中国向日本出口农产品贸易的可能影响因素进行描述性分析和实证检验。研究发现:中国对日本农产品出口增长放缓,主要以简单农产品为主,而农产品进口增长加快,且以加工农产品为主。同时,可以发现日本国内生产总值、外汇汇率、政治关系波动等都对双边农产品贸易有一定的影响。文章针对此提出相关政策建议,以供参考。This paper analyzes the changes of agricultural trade flow and subdivided agricultural trade volume from 2001 to 2019,and uses the trade gravity model to make a descriptive analysis and empirical test on the possible influencing factors of China’s export of agricultural products to Japan.It is found that the export growth of agricultural products from China to Japan slowed down,and most of them are simple agricultural products.The growth of agricultural imports accelerates,and most of them are processed agricultural products.At the same time,it can be found that Japan’s GDP,foreign exchange rate,political relationship fluctuations and so on all have a certain impact on bilateral agricultural trade.And finally,it puts forward the relevant policy suggestions as references.

关 键 词：中日农产品贸易 贸易流量 引力模型 多元回归分析 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]