碳中和目标下,2035年中国能源需求和碳排放情景分析  

Seenario Analysis of China's Energy Demand and Carbon Emission till 2035 under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality

作　　者：鲁玉成 周剑[1,2] 周胜 鲁传一[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国能源》2021年第8期44-53,共10页Energy of China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目的阶段性成果(编号:2018YFC1509006)。

摘　　要：针对中国2030年前碳达峰及2060年前碳中和目标,采用情景分析法研究未来中国经济发展情景,采用弹性系数法,分析不同情景下能源需求和相应的CO_(2)排放,并模拟中国未来碳达峰的时间和峰值及一次能源需求量及结构的变化趋势。研究表明,低碳情景和强化低碳情景下,中国分别在2034年和2032年能源需求达峰,峰值分别为62.7亿吨标准煤和60亿吨标准煤﹔在2025年和2022年CO_(2)排放提前达峰,峰值分别为101.7亿吨CO_(2)和100.5亿吨CO_(2)。最后对需求弹性系数的敏感性进行分析,并提出相关政策建议。Based on China's commitment to reach the carbon peak by 2030 and the vision of carbon neutralityby 2060,scenario analysis is used to study the future economic development scenarios of China.Using the elasticitycoefficient method,the energy demand and the corresponding carbon dioxide emissions under different scenarios areanalyzed,and the peak time and peak value of carbon emission and the change trend of future primary energy demandstructure in China are simulated.The results show that under the low carbon scenario and the enhanced low carbonscenario,China's energy demand peaks time are in 2034 and 2032 with the peak value of 6.27 billion tons of standardcoal and 6.0 billion tons of standard coal respectively;and carbon dioxide emissions peak are in 2025 and 2022,with10.17 billion tons CO_(2)_(2)and 10.05 billion tons CO_(2)respectively.Finally,the sensitivity of demand elasticity coefficient isanalyzed,and relevant policy suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：经济增长﹔能源需求 CO_(2)排放﹔能源需求弹性 排放峰值 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]