大气规制对全要素生产率的动态影响效应测算  

Measurement of Dynamic Impact of Atmospheric Regulation on Total Factor Productivity

作　　者：王玥[1] 谭雪 翁智雄 石磊[1] 马中[1] 陆根法[4] WANG Yue;TAN Xue;WENG Zhixiong;SHI Lei;MA Zhong;LU Genfa(School of Environment and Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China;Institute of Recycling Economy,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resources Reuse,School of the Environment,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872 [2]国网能源研究院有限公司,北京102209 [3]北京工业大学循环经济研究院,北京100124 [4]南京大学环境学院,污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2021年第9期2285-2294,共10页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项(No.2018YFC0213702);中国人民大学2020年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划成果。

摘　　要：为有效落实大气环境质量管控要求,推进大气环境高效率保护与经济高质量发展协同共进新局面,该研究聚焦对波特假说的验证,定量评价大气规制对地区生产力发展的动态影响.运用以超效率数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis,DEA)模型为基础建立的DEA-Malmquist指数,对2006—2017年京津冀及周边地区“2+26”城市全要素生产率(total factor productivity,TFP)的变动情况进行测算,并通过分解TFP动态指数,识别TFP变动的关键影响因素;在此基础上,通过基于向量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数方法,测算各城市大气规制的短期、长期动态影响,并以此分别对强、弱波特假说进行验证.结果表明:从整体来看,“2+26”城市的TFP于2006—2015年间总体降低了4.6%,技术创新变动是“2+26”城市TFP变动的关键影响因素;从区域来看,大气规制对TFP、技术创新的影响存在明显区域差异,部分地区的强、弱波特假说不成立;从时效来看,大气规制具有较长时间(15~20年)的持续影响,但部分地区的大气规制在实施后的2~4年内正负影响发生转变,强、弱波特假说的成立情况也会随之改变.研究显示,在大气规制的制定和管理中,既要结合城市经济社会发展实际和大气规制影响差异,进行分类管理和针对性管控,也要定期(规制施行后2~4年)对规制的实施进行评估和滚动调整,以实现“全面布局、精准施策”的大气规制设计与实施.Quantitative evaluation of the impact of atmospheric regulation on economic development will help to improve the performance of atmospheric regulation.To effectively implement the relevant control requirements of atmospheric environmental quality and achieve the cooperative effect of high-efficient atmospheric environmental protection and high-quality economic development,this paper focused on the verification of the Porter hypothesis to analyze the dynamic impact of atmospheric regulation on the development of regional productivity.Based on the panel data of the‘2+26’cities from 2006 to 2017,taking capital stock,labour and energy as input factors,economic development as desirable output,industrial sulphur dioxide and dust discharge as undesirable outputs,data envelopment analysis(DEA)-Malmquist index was used to estimate the total factor productivity(TFP)that could represent the green productivity of the‘2+26’cities,and then the key driving factor of TFP was identified by decomposing the TFP dynamic index.On this basis,a vector autoregressive model of atmospheric regulation,TFP and its key driving factor was constructed.Then,the impact of atmospheric regulation in short-term and long-term was explored through impulse response function,which testified the strong and weak Potter hypotheses.The results show that the TFP of the‘2+26’cities showed a downward trend from 2006 to 2015,an upward trend from 2015 to 2017,and the TFP decreased by 4.6%during the entire period from 2006 to 2017.Technological innovation was the key factor affecting TFP.From a regional perspective,there were significant regional differences of the impact of atmospheric regulation on TFP and technological innovation,which means that the strong and weak Porter hypotheses were not applicable in some cities.In terms of duration,the impact of atmospheric regulation could last for 15 to 20 years after implementation,while the impact differed in the long-term and short-term.The transition of impact usually occurred within 2 to 4 years,and

关 键 词：大气规制 全要素生产率 DEA-MALMQUIST指数 向量自回归模型 波特假说 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]