公众情感与经济波动的实现:以财经新闻为例  

The Realization of Public Sentiment and Economic Fluctuations:The Perspective of Financial News

作　　者：李守皓 丁立贵 LI Shou-hao;DING Li-gui(School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Branch of Xundian County,People’s Bank of China,Kunming,Yunnan 655201,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]中国人民银行云南省寻甸县支行,云南昆明655201

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2021年第5期30-41,共12页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：清华大学科研项目“新时代中国金融市场效率及社会治理绩效研究”(20192001391)。

摘　　要：为系统性探析公众预期与经济波动的关系,本文从文本挖掘角度构建了一个经济景气舆情分析系统,通过创建“财经情感词典”和自然语言处理,量化了多渠道新闻文本中反映的公众对经济形势的判断,即“财经情感得分”,可以用于衡量混沌的经济景气度,因其可以实时获取和更新而具有“前瞻性”,故被用于刻画“公众预期”。在实证分析中,经济波动与公众预期之间存在着明显的联动关系。具体而言,官方信息具有反向实现的特点,而自由的公众预期与专业预期都达成了“自我实现”的结果,即乐观的情绪带来经济增长,悲观的情绪带来经济下滑。进一步的格兰杰因果关系检验发现经济波动与公众预期之间存在着双向的因果关系,验证了二者自我实现的关系。就现实中自我预期实现的机制与路径而言,新闻信息能够表现出理性个体一致稳定的偏好,即本文所使用的财经情感得分。此种情感最终传递到企业家的经济活动之中,造成自我实现的现象。此发现有助于公众与监管者进一步认识预期管理与宏观经济调控的互动。To systematically analyze the relationship between public expectations and economic fluctuations,we construct a system to analyze economic climate based on public opinion by text mining.Through the creation of a financial sentiment dictionary and natural language processing,we quantify the public's judgment on the economic situation reflected in multi-channel news,that is,the financial sentiment score,which could be used to measure the chaos of economic activity.Because the financial sentiment score can be obtained and updated in real time,it is forward-looking and can be used to portray public expectation.In the empirical analysis,there is indeed a linkage between economic fluctuation and public expectation.The empirical analysis finds that official information tends to reversely realize,and free public expectation and professional expectation could self-realize,that is,optimism brings economic growth,and pessimism brings economic decline.A further Granger test finds that there is a two-way causal relationship between economic fluctuations and public expectations,verifying their self-realization relationship.For the mechanism and path of self-expectation realization,we believe that news information shows the consistent and stable preferences of rational individuals,i.e.,the financial sentiment score.Such emotion is finally transmitted to the economic activities of entrepreneurs,causing self-realization.This finding could help the public and regulators further understand the interaction between expectation management and macroeconomic regulation.

关 键 词：适应性预期 经济波动 文本分析 公众情感 

分 类 号：F014.8[经济管理—政治经济学] C912.6[社会学]