中国粮食消费需求分析与展望  

Analysis and Prospect of China's Food Consumption

作　　者：曾勰婷 张忠明 王静香 赵跃龙 Zeng Xieting;Zhang Zhongming;Wang Jingxiang;Zhao Yuelong(Academy of Agricultural Planning and Engineering,MARA,Beijing 100125;Cultivated Land Quality Monitoring and Protection Center,MARA,Beijing 100125)

机构地区：[1]农业农村部规划设计研究院,北京100125 [2]农业农村部耕地质量监测保护中心,北京100125

出　　处：《农业展望》2021年第7期104-114,共11页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业农村部规划设计研究院院自选课题“我国粮食消费需求分析与预测”(ZZYFZCYJ201904)。

摘　　要：跟踪粮食消费需求变化对于保障国家粮食安全、促进经济平稳发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。以全国31个省(区、市)为研究单元,将粮食消费量划分为口粮、饲料粮、工业用粮、种子粮和损耗5个组成部分,分析了2001—2018年中国粮食消费总量和消费结构,以及全国城乡、四大经济区域和各省级行政区的口粮与饲料粮消费总量及结构变化。最后,从人均口粮与饲料粮消费、人口和城镇化率、工业用粮等与粮食消费需求密切相关的因素出发,展望了未来全国四大区域及重点省份的粮食需求趋势。Analyzing the change of grain consumption has important theoretical and practical significance for ensuring China's food security and promoting stable economic development.Taking 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)as the research unit,the food consumption was divided into five parts,such as staple food,feed grain,industrial use of grain,seed and loss,the total consumption of grain and consumption structure in China from 2001 to 2018 were analyzed,the total consumption and the changes of consumption structure of staple food and feed grain in China's urban and rural areas,four economical regions and 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)were analyzed.Finally,the future demand trend of grain in four economical regions and key provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China were forecasted from the factors closely related to food consumption demand,such as per capita grain and feed grain consumption,population and urbanization rate,industrial grain consumption.

关 键 词：粮食安全 消费需求 四大经济区域 消费趋势 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]