不同类型城市的PM_(2.5)健康风险及影响因素差异  

Differences of PM_(2.5) health risks and influencing factors in different types of cities

作　　者：刁贝娣 丁镭[2] 成金华[3] DIAO Beidi;DING Lei;CHENG Jinhua(School of Economics and Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221000,China;Industrial Economic Research Center Around Hangzhou Bay,Ningbo Polytechnic,Ningbo Zhejiang 315800,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan Hubei 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学经济管理学院,江苏徐州221000 [2]宁波职业技术学院环杭州湾地区产业经济研究中心,浙江宁波315800 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第8期90-100,共11页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“基于多时空尺度大气污染跨界传输产生的影响及生态补偿机制研究”(批准号:2021QN1056)。

摘　　要：当前,空气污染的现状与公民对干净、健康环境的诉求之间关系紧张,迫使城市在发展的过程中必须解决空气污染和相关的健康问题。基于2008—2018年中国338个城市PM_(2.5)浓度和人口密度的遥感数据,采取暴露-响应函数来估算因为长期暴露在PM_(2.5)污染下产生的早逝及相关疾病发病率。进而利用K-Means聚类分析方法将城市分为四类,并针对不同类型城市分别建立计量模型进行健康风险影响因素的分析。结果表明:虽然PM_(2.5)污染及相关的健康风险都经历了恶化、缓解到改善的过程,但全国范围内由污染导致的各类健康问题依旧严峻,早逝、呼吸系统疾病和心脑血管疾病等发病人次高达到数十万。通过K-Means聚类分析方法将全国338个城市划分为工业型城市、资源型城市、中心型城市和其他类型城市,四类城市的健康风险随时间变化趋势基本一致,2018年相比2013年表现出健康风险显著下降的状态。从影响因素来看,健康风险主要受城市化率、人口密度、产业结构、经济发展等因素的影响;针对不同类型的城市,工业型城市健康风险的主导因素为城市化率、人口密度和产业结构,资源型城市则为城市化率和人口密度,中心型为人口密度和产业结构,其他类型为城市化率和人口密度。最后根据不同类型城市的城市特性及主导因素差异,分别针对城市发展模式、产业结构优化、公共卫生服务和评价标准深化等方面给出以下四条政策建议:多中心城市模式与城市落户政策双管齐下,降低人口密度;提高行业准入标准,奖罚并行优化产业结构;发挥社区医院功效,提高公共卫生服务质量;将健康成本纳入环境及城镇化质量评估体系。Currently,the relationship between the deteriorating air quality and citizens’demands for a clean and healthy environment is becoming increasingly tense,which forces cities to solve air pollution and related health problems in the process of urban development.Based on the remote sensing data of PM_(2.5) concentration and population density in China from 2008 to 2018,an exposure-response function was used to estimate the mortality and morbidity caused by long-term exposure to PM_(2.5) pollution.Furthermore,the KMeans cluster analysis method was selected for city classification,and econometric models were established for different types of cities to analyze health risk factors.The results showed that:Although PM_(2.5) pollution and related health risks experienced a process of deterioration,mitigation,and then improvement,all kinds of health problems caused by pollution were still severe,with hundreds of people suffering from premature deaths and related diseases.From the analysis of influencing factors,health risks were mainly affected by factors such as urbanization rate,population density,industrial structure,and economic development.In terms of different types of cities,the leading factors of health risks in industrial cities were urbanization rate,population density and industrial structure;those of resource-based cities were urbanization rate and population density;those of central cities were population density and industrial structure;and those of other types of cities were urbanization rate and population density.Finally,based on the differences in urban characteristics and leading factors of health risks,this study gives policy recommendations for urban development modeling,industrial structure optimization,public health service improvement,and evaluation standard reforms.

关 键 词：PM_(2.5)污染 城市化率 健康风险 城市类型 差异研究 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]