规划外城镇用地扩张的市场驱动与规划约束  

Market force and planning constraint in non-conforming urban expansion

作　　者：沈孝强 SHEN Xiaoqiang(School of Management,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学管理学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第8期112-120,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“规划外城镇用地扩张的微观决策机理与差别化治理研究”(批准号:71904072);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“主体决策行为视角下空间规划治理城市蔓延的绩效及其影响因素研究”(批准号:2020jbkyzy028)。

摘　　要：为什么在分区图则被赋予法定效力且城市增长边界内开发未饱和的情况下会普遍存在规划外城镇用地扩张现象?这是国土空间用途管制实施过程中面临的一个重要现实问题,但目前仍缺乏关注和深入研究。文章主要目的是解释规划外城镇用地的扩张机理,并揭示规划在规划外城镇用地开发中所发挥的作用。作者提出了规划外城镇用地开发由市场机制驱动、受规划分区图则约束且其约束力受地方空间开发政策调节的假设,以一个省会城市所辖县级区为例,运用二元Logistic模型识别规划城镇建设用地范围外地块开发概率的影响因素,以此验证在规划外城镇用地扩张情境中市场机制的驱动作用和规划因素的约束作用。研究发现,市场驱动变量和规划约束变量均对规划外城镇用地开发选址产生了显著影响。大多规划外城镇用地开发行为由市场机制驱动,其空间分布具有明显的区位优势特征,能够较好地满足开发商的项目选址偏好。另外,规划外城镇用地扩张仍然受规划图则的约束,分区能够有效抑制不连续的蛙跳式城市蔓延,阻止城市扩张侵占农业与生态保护区的土地。城镇开发强限制性的土地用途分区和建设用地管制分区中地块的开发概率显著低于城镇开发弱限制性分区中的地块。然而,规划的约束作用受地方政府空间开发政策的调节,开发区外的规划约束作用显著强于开发区内。研究结论在一定程度上揭示了地方政府的规划分区实施逻辑——在利用市场机制的基础上寻求通过土地开发实现地方利益和规避规划外城镇用地开发可能造成政治风险之间的平衡。Why is urban development frequently and commonly non-conforming to spatial plans even though zoning maps are endowed with statutory force and urban growth boundaries are large enough to accommodate all the land development projects?This is an important practical problem faced by plan implementation,which still lacks in-depth and detailed study.With the purpose of interpreting non-conforming urban development and revealing the role of the plan in the non-conforming situation,we propose the following three hypotheses based on the relationship between the plan and the market in allocating land resource and local governments’interests in land development.First,non-conforming urban development is driven by the market force.Second,zoning maps can still influence non-conforming urban development.Third,the influence of zoning maps is moderated by local spatial development policies.We take a county-level district in a provincial capital of western China as a case to test the above theoretical hypotheses.The statistical results from the binary logistic regression show that the explanatory variables used to measure market force and planning constraint have a significant influence on non-conforming urban development.Most non-conforming urban land has location advantages,which can meet the investors’location preferences.In addition,most non-conforming urban land is adjacent to conforming urban land,which indicates the role of zoning maps in restricting the spatial location of non-conforming urban development.The zones with severe restrictions on land development rarely experience urban development,and the dominant use type of land in the zones for non-construction land area is rarely converted for development.Moreover,zoning maps have stronger restrictions on non-conforming urban development outside the development zones than those inside.These findings confirm the hypotheses and to some extent show the strategies of the local governments in plan implementation--balancing the promotion of local interests and the control o

关 键 词：规划实施 规划外城镇用地 市场驱动 规划约束 调节效应 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]