江苏残坡积土质滑坡预警模型和判据研究  

Research on early warning model and criteria of eluvial soil landslide in Jiangsu

作　　者：李伟[1,2,3] 李明 理继红[1,2] 袁崇铭 宋京雷[1,2] 张丽 LI Wei;LI Ming;LI Ji-hong;YUAN Chong-ming;SONG Jing-lei;ZHANG Li(Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210018,China;Key Laboratory of Earth Fissures Geologic Disaster,Ministry of Natural Resources,Nanjing 210018,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省地质调查研究院,南京210018 [2]自然资源部地裂缝地质灾害重点实验室,南京210018 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《世界地质》2021年第3期632-637,共6页World Geology

基　　金：江苏省省级地质勘查专项资金项目(苏财建〔2017〕160号、苏财建〔2018〕96号)。

摘　　要：以江苏省典型的雪浪山残坡积土质滑坡为例,根据5个单次降雨过程中滑坡体土壤含水率动态确定了前期降雨影响的时间跨度为10 d和每日的有效降雨系数,在此基础上对传统的有效降雨量模型进行了修正。通过对38个残坡积土质滑坡实例的有效降雨量频次统计确定了3~5级滑坡预警的临界有效降雨量分别为50 mm、80 mm和170 mm,研究结果在2019年3次降雨过程中得到了验证。Taking the Xuelang Mountain eluvial soil landslide in Jiangsu as an example,the affected duration of early rainfall is determined as 10 days and the coefficient of daily effective rainfall is obtained based on the analyses of soil moisture content observations in 5 single rainfall processes.The traditional effective rainfall model is improved by the results.The statistics of effective rainfall frequency for 38 cases of eluvial soil landslides were conducted,indicating that the effective rainfall of grade 3~5 landslide early warning is 50 mm,80 mm and 170 mm,respectively.The results have been verified using three rainfall processes in 2019.

关 键 词：残坡积土质滑坡 降雨量 预警模型 预警判据 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]