1981~2015年我国粮食主产区气候生产潜力的时空分异与演化  

Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Evolution of Climatic Production Potential in Chinese Major Grain Area from 1981 to 2015

作　　者：罗海平[1] 邹楠 王圣云[1] LUO Hai-ping;ZOU Nan;WANG Sheng-yun(Research Center of Central China Economic and Social Development,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330047,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330047

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2021年第7期1724-1733,共10页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41861025);江西省社会科学规划项目(20MJ02);江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(JD20111)。

摘　　要：粮食主产区是关系我国粮食安全的粮食生产核心区域,研究气候变化下粮食主产区粮食气候生产潜力的时空分异与演化特征具有重要意义。基于我国粮食主产区13个省份341个气象台的日测气象数据,应用逐级订正的机制法模型对1981~2015年间粮食气候生产潜力及其时空演化进行分析,研究得出:(1)我国粮食主产区年平均粮食气候生产潜力为9 171.17 kg/hm^(2),时间维度上的演化路径总体平稳,而我国粮食主产区光合生产潜力呈下降趋势,光温生产潜力呈上升趋势,光、温、水气候因子变动对粮食生产的综合影响较小;(2)光照影响下光合生产潜力呈"西北高东南低"特征,光、温、水气候因子层层叠加下粮食气候生产潜力出现空间重组,粮食主产区粮食气候生产潜力自东南向西北递减的地理分异特征显著,长江中下游平原和成都平原为高值区,气候条件优越,平原地形利于耕种;(3)粮食主产区粮食气候生产潜力空间分布演化呈现高值区范围缩小、低值区范围保持、中间值地区空间差异弱化的特征。As Chinese core region of grain production, the major grain area plays an important role in guaranteeing food security in China. Therefore it is full of meaning to research spatiotemporal differentiation and evolution characteristics of grain climatic production potential in Chinese major grain area, especially under the background of climate change. Using step correcting mechanism model based on daily monitoring data of 341 meteorological stations in 13 provinces of Chinese major grain area, this study investigates grain climatic production potential and its spatiotemporal evolution from 1981 to 2015. The results indicate that:(1) The annual average grain climatic production potential in Chinese major grain area is 9 171.17 kg/hm^(2), and temporal evolution path of grain climatic production potential in Chinese major grain area is generally stationary, however photosynthetic production potential has been decreasing and light-temperature production potential has been raising. The variation of light, temperature and water climatic resources has a little comprehensive effect to Chinese grain production.(2) Photosynthetic production potential determined by illumination in the northwest is higher than in the southeast, however spatial structure of grain climatic production potential reorganizes after continuous superposition of light, temperature and water climatic resources. Grain climatic production potential in Chinese major grain area exhibits a significantly spatial pattern, characterized by higher in the southeast than the northwest. Further, the higher potential areas are mainly concentrated in the Plain of Yangtze River Middle and Lower Reaches and Chengdu Plain, where climate and terrain condition is suitable for cultivation.(3)The evolution of grain climatic production potential in Chinese major grain area has three characteristics. The first characteristic is that scope of the higher potential areas has been narrowing;the second is that scope of the lower potential areas basically holds;and the third is th

关 键 词：气候生产潜力 粮食主产区 时空分异 动态演化 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]