2006-2020年广州市儿童肺结核流行特征及变化趋势  

Epidemic characteristics and changing trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in children in Guangzhou City from 2006 to 2020

作　　者：董智强[1] 刘伟[1] 胡文穗[1] 侯建荣[1] 孙丽丽[1] 吴雪霁[1] 刘远[1] DONG Zhi-qiang;LIU Wei;HU Wen-sui;HOU Jian-rong;SUN Li-li;WU Xue-ji;LIU Yuan(Operations Management Department,Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 510440,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市疾病预防控制中心业务管理部,广东广州510440

出　　处：《中国感染控制杂志》2021年第9期801-806,共6页Chinese Journal of Infection Control

基　　金：广州市重点实验室基础研究计划项目(202102100001);广州市科技计划项目(201904010156)。

摘　　要：目的分析广州市儿童肺结核流行特征及变化趋势,为制定科学防控措施提供参考依据。方法收集2006—2020年广州市0~14岁儿童肺结核发病报告数据,分析疾病的三间分布,同时采用Joinpoint回归模型进行发病率趋势分析。结果共报告0~14岁儿童肺结核1397例,占全人口肺结核报告发病例数的0.66%,报告发病率由2006年的7.31/10万降至2020年的2.90/10万,总体呈下降趋势,年均下降3.90%(AAPC=-3.90,95%CI:-5.64~-2.13),男性年均下降速度(AAPC=-4.74,95%CI:-6.77~-2.66,P<0.01)较女性年均下降速度(AAPC=-2.86,95%CI:-4.78~-0.91,P<0.01)更快;城区儿童肺结核报告发病率年均下降4.14%(AAPC=-4.14,95%CI:-5.99~-2.24,P<0.01),农村儿童发病率无明显变化趋势(β=-0.02,t=1.00,P=0.34),但总体报告发生率略低于城区儿童;0~2岁组和10~14岁组儿童肺结核报告发生率相对较高,除10~14岁组儿童肺结核报告发病率无明显变化趋势外,其他年龄组儿童均呈下降趋势。结论广州市0~14岁儿童肺结核报告发生率总体呈下降趋势,农村儿童以及10~14岁组儿童下降趋势不明显,需重点加强此类儿童结核病防控工作。Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and changing trend of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in children in Guangzhou City,and provide reference for formulating scientific prevention and control measures.Methods Data of reported PTB occurrence among children aged 0-14 years in Guangzhou City from 2006 to 2020 were collected,spatial,temporal and population distribution were analyzed,the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of disease incidence.Results A total of 1397 PTB children aged 0-14 years were reported,accounting for 0.66%of the reported cases of PTB in the whole population.The reported incidence dropped from 7.31/100000 in 2006 to 2.90/100000 in 2020,and presented overall declining trend,with an average annual decline of 3.90%(AAPC=-3.90,95%CI:-5.64--2.13),the average annual decline rate of boys(AAPC=-4.74,95%CI:-6.77--2.66,P<0.01)was faster than that of girls(AAPC=-2.86,95%CI:-4.78--0.91,P<0.01);reported incidence of PTB in children in urban areas averagely decreased by 4.14%(AAPC=-4.14,95%CI:-5.99--2.24,P<0.01)annually,there was no significant change in incidence in children in rural areas(β=-0.02,t=1.00,P=0.34),but the overall reported incidence was slightly lower than that of urban children;incidence of PTB in children aged 0-2 and 10-14 was relatively higher,except for the 10-14 year old group without significant change in the reported incidence of PTB,children in other age groups showed a downward trend.Conclusion Reported incidence of PTB in children aged 0-14 years in Guangzhou City generally showed a downward trend,decline trend for children in rural area and aged 10-14 years is not obvious,it is necessary to focus on strengthening the prevention and control of PTB for these children.

关 键 词：肺结核 儿童 流行特征 Joinpoint回归模型 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]