南京市电力负荷特征及夏季极端负荷与气象条件关系  

Characteristics of Electric Loads in Nanjing and Relationship between Extreme Loads and Meteorological Conditions in Summer

作　　者：李艳[1] 俞剑蔚[2] 蔡芗宁[3] 范晓青[1] 黄琰[1] LI Yan;YU Jianwei;CAI Xiangning;FAN Xiaoqing;HUANG Yan(CMA Public Meteorological Service Centre,Beijing 100081;Jiangsu Provincial Meteorology Observatory,Nanjing 210008;National Meteorological Center,CMA,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [2]江苏省气象台,南京210008 [3]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技》2021年第4期637-646,共10页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国长江电力股份有限公司科研课题(241802002)“受电区域气象条件对用电负荷的影响研究”资助。

摘　　要：基于南京地区2014-2016年逐日电力负荷资料,采用谐波分析、功率谱等方法分析该地区电力负荷的变化规律及其与自然周的关系,并对极端电力负荷日中离差曲线型与气温、湿度等气象要素及环流形势的关系进行分析。结果表明:南京地区电力负荷的季节变化呈双峰型;在季节内(月际)尺度上,存在30d周期;在月内尺度上,存在7d周期且与自然周同步。夏季极端负荷日离差曲线主要存在3种类型:典型双峰型(Ⅰ)、单峰型(Ⅱ)、非典型双峰型(Ⅲ)。Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型与气温和炎热指数均呈显著正相关,而3种类型都与相对湿度呈显著负相关。Ⅰ型对应环流场上副高持续控制南京地区,冷空气活动偏弱,气温日变化小;Ⅱ型对应冷空气活动频繁,副高具有东西摆动特征,南京常出现阵雨或雷阵雨天气;Ⅲ型对应的副高强度弱于Ⅰ型,冷空气强度弱于Ⅱ型。采用逐步回归方法建立极端负荷日的预测模型,3种型的平均相对误差分别为6.4%、5.6%和5.3%,较好地对极端电力负荷进行了定量预报。Based on the daily power load data in Nanjing from 2014 to 2016,using the harmonic analysis and power spectrum method,etc.,the study analyzes the change rule and characteristics of power loads in Nanjing,and the relationship between the daily curve of power load and the meteorological elements such as temperature and humidity in extreme power load days.The results show that the seasonal variation of power loads in Nanjing is mainly bimodal.On the intra-month scale,there is a significant 7-days period change,which is significantly corresponding to weekly circulation.There are three types of daily extreme load deviation curves:typical bimodal(Ⅰ),unimodal(Ⅱ),and atypical bimodal(Ⅲ).The typesⅠandⅢshow significant positive correlation with temperature and hotness index,while all the three types show significant negative correlation with relative humidity.Then,the type Ⅰcorresponds to the circulation controlled by a strong and stable sub-high over Nanjing,weak cold air activity,and small temperature diurnal variation.The typeⅡ happens while Nanjing is affected by frequent cold air activities and the eastwest swing subtropical high,when showers or thunderstorms usually happen in Nanjing.The intensity of the subtropical high corresponding to type Ⅲis weaker than that to typeⅠ,and the degree of cold air activity is weaker than that to typeⅡ.The stepwise regression method is adopted to establish prediction models for different types of extreme load days.The average relative errors of the prediction models based on the three types are 6.4%,5.6%,and 5.3%,respectively,which can provide good quantitative power load forecasts for extreme power load days in Nanjing.

关 键 词：电力负荷 极端负荷日 功率谱 交叉谱 气象条件 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]