洞庭湖流域各季节旱涝及其与大气环流和关键区海温的关系  

Relationship between Droughts/Floods throughout a Year over the Dongting Lake Basin and Atmospheric Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature over Key Sea Areas

作　　者：刘仲藜 章新平[1,2] 黎祖贤 贺新光[1,2] 关华德 Liu Zhongli;Zhang Xinping;Li Zuxian;He Xinguang;Guan Huade(College of Resources and Environmental Science,Changsha 410081,China;Hunan Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application,Changsha 410081,China;Hunan Provincial Weather Modification Office,Changsha 410007,China;College of Science and Engineering,Flinders University,Adelaide,SA 5001,Australia)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,长沙410081 [2]湖南师范大学地理空间大数据挖掘与应用湖南省重点实验室,长沙410081 [3]湖南省人工影响天气领导小组办公室,长沙410007 [4]College of Science and Engineering,Flinders University,Adelaide SA 5001,Australia

出　　处：《热带地理》2021年第5期987-999,共13页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41571021);湖南省人影办自立项科研课题(201901)。

摘　　要：利用逐月降水数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,分析了洞庭湖流域春、夏、秋季57年来旱涝异常的年际变化以及典型旱涝异常年份的全球海温分布形势,并利用降尺度和趋势分析方法探究气象因子对ENSO和关键区海温的响应,以加强对流域旱涝前期影响因素的认识。结果表明:1)流域在春、秋季旱涝变化趋势不明显,在夏季较明显地变湿。2)前期冬、夏季ENSO事件分别对流域春、秋季旱涝产生显著影响,而与夏季呈不显著的统计特征。3)在消除前期ENSO信号后,阿留申群岛附近海域(S3)、澳大利亚东部海域(S4)海温和印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole,IOD)现象仍分别为春、夏、秋季与流域旱涝有密切联系的海温因素。4)S3区SST对流域春季旱涝的影响通过西风带环流实现,S4区SST偏高似乎是东亚夏季风强度偏弱的表现,成熟的IOD现象为流域秋季旱涝的主导因子。Droughts are the most common natural disasters with the most significant impact on human society.They are caused by water deficiency over extended periods.The Dongting Lake Basin is alternately controlled by winter,southwest,and southeast monsoons throughout a year,with meteorological droughts occurring each season.Additionally,the controlling factors for these droughts are distinct.The precipitation amount directly illustrates droughts and floods,affected by atmospheric circulation and water vapor conditions.Anomalies in atmospheric circulation are closely related to the evolution of Sea Surface Temperature(SST),which changes over long durations and is of significant importance for drought and flood forecasting over the basin.At present,studies that determine the linkage between SST and droughts/floods over the Dongting Lake Basin primarily show the statistical relationship between them;however,atmospheric circulation is the direct influencing factor of floods/droughts over the basin.Therefore,determining the relationship between meteorological elements and SST is conducive to revealing the mechanism of their statistical relationship.There are few studies on this research field in the Dongting Lake Basin.To determine the mechanism of the linkage between sea surface temperature and droughts/floods over Dongting Lake Basin and improve the understanding of forecast-improved factors for droughts/floods,this study analyzed the interannual evolution of droughts and floods in spring,summer,and autumn within the Dongting Lake Basin from 1960 to 2016 based on monthly precipitation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,investigated the distribution of global SST in typical drought/flood years,and studied the responses of meteorological factors(including precipitable water,sea level pressure,and wind fields at 850 hPa)to El Niño and Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and SST over key sea areas,using downscaling technologies and tendency analysis.Results show that in spring,the basin experienced interannual dry and wet alternations an

关 键 词：洞庭湖流域 区域旱涝指数 季节性旱涝 ENSO 关键区海表面温度 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]