三江平原土地利用变化对水量平衡的影响  

Effects of land use change on water balance in the Sanjiang Plain

作　　者：孙青言[1] 陆垂裕[1] 郭辉[2] 严聆嘉 何鑫 吴初 SUN Qingyan;LU Chuiyu;GUO Hui;YAN Lingjia;HE Xin;WU Chu(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Heilongjiang Provincial Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power Investigation,Design and Research Institute,Haerbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]黑龙江省水利水电勘测设计研究院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《水科学进展》2021年第5期694-706,共13页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51509264);黑龙江省应用技术研究与开发计划资助项目(GA19C005)。

摘　　要：三江平原土地利用(LU)变化及其引发的大规模水资源开发利用活动对当地水文循环产生了明显扰动。为明确三江平原水量平衡特征及其存在的问题,基于2000—2014年土地利用连续变化情景的水文循环仿真模型,在其他数据和参数不变的前提下,建立假设模型和预测模型,分别模拟2000年起已控制LU变化和2014年后控制LU变化2种假设LU管控情景的水文过程,对比3种情景下的水量平衡。结果显示:如果2000年开始就采取积极的LU管控措施,此后的15a将有效减少三江平原对外调水的依赖,改善地下水超采的现状,甚至使平原区地下水储量年均增加3.08亿m^(3);如果2014年才实施土地利用管控措施,巨大的水资源开发利用惯性将使平原区地下水年均亏空量达到14.26亿m^(3),甚至使全区域的蓄水量由盈转亏,年均亏损4.25亿m^(3)。三江平原要实现各层次的水量收支平衡,除了尽快控制高耗水LU类型的过快增长,更加积极的水资源调配及相关工程的建设势在必行。Land use(LU)change and large-scale exploration and utilization activities of water resources have resulted in apparent disturbance on the hydrologic circle in the Sanjiang Plain.To identify the water balance characteristics and problems,this paper,based on the hydrologic baseline model,which can reflect the continuous change of land use from 2000 to 2014(dynamic LU scenario or actual scenario),established a hypothetical model and a predictive model to simulate the hydrologic processes under the 2000 LU(2000 static LU scenario)and the 2014 LU(2014 static LU scenario),respectively,by replacing the LU data of the baseline model,and then compared the simulated water balance in the three scenarios.The results showed that if active LU control measures were taken since 2000,meaning the LU kept constant since 2000,the dependence on external water resources would have been effectively reduced compared to the actual scenario.The groundwater overdraft problem could be largely alleviated,and the groundwater storage in plain areas could even increase by 308 million m^(3)/a in the following 15 years.However,if the LU control measures were implemented after 2014,meaning the 2014 LU was used for the whole simulation period,it would cause the annual groundwater deficit in the plain areas to be as much as 1426 million m^(3).The water storage in the whole region would have turned from positive to negative,with an average annual deficit of 425 million m^(3).To achieve water balance at various levels in the Sanjiang Plain,it is imperative to carry out more active allocation of water resources and construction of relevant water projects while taking immediate measures to contain excessive growth of high-water-consuming LU types.

关 键 词：水量平衡 土地利用变化 蓄水量 蒸散发 产流 水文模型 三江平原 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]