Risk assessment of floor water inrush in coal mines based on MFIM-TOPSIS variable weight model  

基于MFIM-TOPSIS变权模型的煤层底板突水风险评价

作　　者：ZHANG Guan-da XUE Yi-guo BAI Cheng-hao SU Mao-xin ZHANG Kai TAO Yu-fan 张贯达;薛翊国;柏成浩;苏茂鑫;张开;陶宇帆(Geotechnical and Structural Engineering Research Center,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,China;Department of Mining Engineering,Colorado School of Mines,Golden,CO 80401,USA)

机构地区：[1]Geotechnical and Structural Engineering Research Center,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,China [2]Department of Mining Engineering,Colorado School of Mines,Golden,CO 80401,USA

出　　处：《Journal of Central South University》2021年第8期2360-2374,共15页中南大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：Projects(41877239,51379112,51422904,40902084,41772298)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China;Project(2019GSF111028)supported by the Key Technology Research and Development Program of Shandong Province,China;Project(2018JC044)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds of Shandong University,China;Project(JQ201513)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China。

摘　　要：Floor water inrush is one of the main types of coal mine water hazards.With the development of deep mining,the prediction and evaluation of floor water inrush is particularly significant.This paper proposes a variable weight model,which combines a multi-factor interaction matrix(MFIM)and the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)to implement the risk assessment of floor water inrush in coal mines.Based on the MFIM,the interaction between seven evaluation indices,including the confined water pressure,water supply condition and aquifer water yield property,floor aquifuge thickness,fault water transmitting ability,fracture development degree,mining depth and thickness and their influence on floor water inrush were considered.After calculating the constant weights,the active degree evaluation was used to assign a variable weight to the indices.The values of the middle layer and final risk level were obtained by TOPSIS.The presented model was successfully applied in the 9901 working face in the Taoyang Mine and four additional coal mines and the results were highly consistent with the engineering situations.Compared with the existing nonlinear evaluation methods,the proposed model had advantages in terms of the weighting,principle explanation,and algorithm structure.煤层底板突水是最为常见的煤矿水害类型之一,随着煤矿开采向更深部发展,底板突水风险预测与评价具有重要意义。本文提出一种煤层底板突水风险评价变权模型,有效地将多因素相互作用关系矩阵(MFIM)和理想点法(TOPSIS)结合起来。基于多因素相互作用关系矩阵,考察了7个评价指标之间的相互作用及其对底板突水的影响程度,包括承压含水层的水压力、含水层的富水性及供水条件、隔水层厚度、断层导水能力、裂隙发育程度、开采深度和开采厚度。在完成常权的计算后,利用活跃程度评价来对指标实现变权的赋予。利用已获得的权重值和理想点法理论,得到中间层的数值和最终的风险水平。所提出的模型在中国的陶阳煤矿9901工作面和其他四个煤矿得到了成功的应用,评价结果与实际情况具有较高的一致性。评价模型与现有的非线性评价方法相比,在赋权、原理解释、算法结构等方面具有优势。

关 键 词：floor water inrush risk assessment multi-factor interaction matrix(MFIM) technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) variable weight 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]