中国数字经济发展能带来经济绿色化吗?——来自我国省际面板数据的经验证据  

Can the Development of China’s Digital Economy Achieve Economic Greening?——Empirical Evidence from China’s Inter-provincial Panel Data

作　　者：樊轶侠 徐昊 Fan Yixia;Xu Hao

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院,北京100142

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2021年第9期15-29,共15页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：中国财政科学研究院2021年招标课题“风险视角下“双碳”导向的财政政策创新研究”(202101)。

摘　　要：数字化和绿色化分别作为中国经济转型发展的重要推力和目标函数,二者能否实现双轮协同驱动,是实现中国经济可持续发展的关键。已有文献提出我国ICT(信息通信技术)与能源消费呈现明显"U"型关系,并且测度出2014年是"能源回弹"的拐点期,本文在此基础上充分考虑数据可获得性,利用我国2013-2017年30省份面板数据构建完整的数字经济指标和绿色GDP指数进行实证检验,研究发现:(1)我国当前数字经济与经济绿色化之间确实符合"倒U形"曲线关系,即随着数字经济水平的提升,经济绿色化水平会表现出先上升后下降的变化趋势,同时数字经济与能源强度间呈现U形曲线关系,表明"能源回弹效应"是构成"倒U形"约束的主要原因;(2)数字经济引致的收入效应和对电力消费依赖性偏高是导致能源回弹的主要原因,当期我国数字经济发展模式主要以外延式扩张为主,"干中学"效应并不明显,数字资本的规模式扩张不仅没有实现要素创新与能源需求的有效替代,反而还固化了既有的能源消费模式,加剧能源回弹效应,我国应进一步加大居民数字素养教育项目的扶持力度,弥补数字鸿沟;(3)随着"流量红利"逐步见底,我国数字产业化发展带来的能源回弹效应凸显,而产业数字化红利尚待挖掘。基于上述研究结论,本文提出了相应政策建议。Digitalization and Greening are the important thrust force and objective function of China′s economic transformation and development respectively.Whether both of them can realize dual-wheel coordinated drive is the key to achieve China′s sustainable economic development.Existing literature has proposed that China′s ICT and energy consumption present an obvious"U-shaped"relationship,and it is estimated that 2014 is the inflection point of"energy rebound".On this basis,this paper takes full account of data availability and uses panel data of 30 provinces from 2013 to 2017 to construct complete digital economy indicators and green GDP index for empirical test.The research findings are as follows:(1)China′s current digital economy and economic greening is indeed in line with the"inverted U-shaped"curve.In other words,with the improvement of digital economy,the level of economic greening will increase first and then decrease.Meanwhile,the relationship between digital economy and energy intensity presents a U-shaped curve,indicating that"energy rebound effect"is the main reason for the"inverted U-shaped"constraint;(2)the income effect and high dependence on electricity consumption are the main reasons for the energy rebound.the current development mode of China′s digital economy is mainly extended,and the effect of"learning by doing"is not obvious.The scale-type expansion of digital capital not only fails to realize the effective substitution of factor innovation and energy demand,but also solidifies the existing energy consumption pattern and intensifies the energy rebound effect.Therefore,the support of residents′digital literacy education projects should be further strengthened to bridge the digital gap.(3)With the"flow dividend"gradually bottoming out,the energy rebound effect brought by the development of digital industrialization in China is prominent,while the industrial digitization dividend needs to be excavated.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy re

关 键 词：数字经济 经济绿色化 能源回弹效应 U形关系 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]