教育扩张、教育机会与中国代际收入流动的变化趋势  

Educational Expansion,Educational Opportunity and the Trend of Intergenerational Income Mobility

作　　者：吴学榕 杨奇明[2] 俞宁 Wu Xuerong;Yang Qiming;Yu Ning

机构地区：[1]云南大学,昆明650000 [2]浙江理工大学,杭州310000 [3]浙江省发展规划研究院,杭州310000

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2021年第9期67-76,共10页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国收入代际流动的趋势、机制与政策分析”(14CJY019),主持人:杨奇明。

摘　　要：基于CHNS调查构建跨越25年父代与子代匹配的样本数据,探讨20世纪末各层次教育扩张对中国代际收入流动变动的影响。结果发现:(1)教育扩张并未立刻带来代际收入流动性的上升。与未受教育扩张影响的70后群体相比,80后群体代际收入流动性大幅下降。原因是父代收入对子代教育的影响反较教育扩张前大幅上升,且教育回报上升进一步放大其对代际收入流动的不利影响。(2)父代收入引起的教育机会不均等及代际收入弹性在教育扩张之后都呈先上升后下降的"倒U"型变化趋势。1981-1985年出生群体教育机会不均等与代际收入弹性均最高,1986-1991年出生群体教育机会不均等下降而代际收入流动性显著上升。(3)教育机会随后的均等化是代际收入流动性最终上升的推动因素。更广泛教育机会均等化和劳动力市场中不公平问题的减少,能进一步发挥教育扩张的公平效应。Based on the CHNS survey,we construct sample data of parent and child matching spanning 25 years to explore the impact of educational expansion in the end of the 20 th century on intergenerational income mobility in China.The results show that:(1)The expansion of education did not immediately lead to an increase in intergenerational income mobility.Compared with the post-1970 s generation,which was not affected by the expansion of education,the inter-generational income mobility of the post-1980 s generation has declined significantly.The reason is that the influence of parental income on children′s education is significantly higher than that before the expansion of education,and the increase of educational return further amplifies its adverse impact on intergenerational income mobility.(2)After the expansion of education,the inequality of educational opportunities caused by the income of the father and the intergenerational income elasticity show an"inverted U"trend,which firstly increases and then decreases.(3)The subsequent equalization of educational opportunities is what drives the eventual rise in intergenerational income mobility.Broader equalization of educational opportunities and reduction of the issues of inequality in the labor market can further leverage the equity effects of educational expansion.

关 键 词：代际收入流动 代际收入弹性 教育扩张 教育机会 三层随机截距模型 

分 类 号：F126.2[经济管理—世界经济]