国际货币体系变局的拐点与中国战略选择  

The Turning Point of International Monetary System and China’s Strategic Choices

作　　者：袁志刚[1] 林燕芳 Yuan Zhigang;Lin Yanfang

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《探索与争鸣》2021年第8期4-17,177,共15页Exploration and Free Views

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国宏观经济调控政策研究”(71933001)。

摘　　要：美元独霸的国际货币体系已悄然至大变革前夜。新冠肺炎疫情之前,美元独霸的国际货币体系已经成为全球经济平稳健康发展的桎梏;疫后的政治极化及扩张性的经济政策持续削弱美国继续维持美元霸权的能力与意志。新冠肺炎疫情冲击下,伴随着中国和欧盟经济的重大变化,欧元与人民币正在成为美元的真正竞争者,国际货币体系的格局演变进入战略拐点。未来,对中国乃至世界有利的国际货币体系变革应当是,由美元独霸的格局逐渐向"一超两强"(即美元一超,欧元、人民币两强)的格局转变。新冠肺炎疫情发生后,人民币对美元长期贬值的预期消散,资本流出风险不再成为未来制约中国资本市场开放力度的重要因素。借此之机,中国需要加速推进金融市场改革,形成庞大的统一内需市场,持续推动人民币国际化,同时在战略上支持欧盟债券与欧盟财政一体化,助力"一超两强"国际货币体系新格局的形成。The international monetary system dominated by the U.S. dollar has come to a historic turning point for major changes. Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the international monetary system dominated by the U.S. dollar had become a shackle for the stable and healthy development of the global economy. After the COVID-19, the political polarization and expansionary policies continue to weaken the hegemony of the dollar status. Under the impact of COVID-19, with the major economic changes in China and Europe, the Euro and RMB are becoming real competitors of the U.S. dollar, and the evolution of the international monetary system has entered a strategic inflection point. In the future, the change of the global monetary system that is beneficial to China and the world should be from the pattern dominated by the U.S. dollar to the pattern o"f one superpower and two powerhouses". After the COVID-19, the expectation of long-term depreciation of RMB against the U.S. dollar dissipated, and the risk of capital outflow is no longer an important factor restricting the opening of China’s capital market in the future. Therefore, China needs to accelerate the reform of the financial market and build a large unified domestic market, continue to promote the internationalization of the RMB, and strategically support the EU bonds and the integration of EU fiscal, so as to contribute to the formation of a new international monetary system of" one superpower and two powerhouses".

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 国际货币体系 拐点 金融市场改革 一超两强 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F821