中美制度竞争对东盟中心地位的冲击——以东盟地区论坛(ARF)为例  

U.S.-China Institutional Competition and ASEAN Centrality: An Analysis Based on ASEAN Regional Forum(ARF)

作　　者：吴琳 WU Lin

机构地区：[1]外交学院亚洲研究所,北京100037

出　　处：《外交评论（外交学院学报）》2021年第5期88-117,I0004,I0005,共32页Foreign Affairs Review

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金科研创新重点项目“中美战略竞争与东盟中心地位重构研究”(项目编号:3162020ZYKB02)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：自特朗普执政以来,中美在亚太地区的制度竞争出现重大转向:恶性竞争模式取代良性竞争模式成为"新常态";美国轻视东盟导致中美制度间制衡升级,但同时中美在东盟主导制度内的竞争也在强化;中美制度竞争的议程、方式和进程因中国被动卷入恶性竞争而显著受制于美国的政策。中美制度间制衡和制度内竞争的升级以不同方式、在不同程度上削弱了东盟在地区多边架构中的中心地位。本文聚焦中美制度内竞争,以东盟地区论坛为例,从制度功能的视角分析发现,中美正通过冲突性博弈、议题竞争、规范竞争、决策过程竞争等制度内竞争路径,从东盟主导架构内部改变东盟中心性的实质,冲击"合作安全"模式的合法性地位、东盟对议题设置的主导力、东盟内部的规范一致性以及"东盟方式"的认同和实践。东盟难以在现有机制下为中美竞争提供缓冲平台和议价规则,其自身在议题和规范的制度竞争中日趋处于次要地位,对于"东盟方式"的维护心有余而力不足。面对新的战略环境,东盟已经认识到开启新一轮适应和创新的必要性和紧迫性。加强地区制度的功能塑造、支持东盟中心地位重构同样符合中国的总体利益,但在较长一段时间内中国将面临支持东盟中心地位重构与开展对美有限竞争的内在张力难题。Since Trump took office,there has been a major shift in the institutional competition between the U.S.and China in the Asia Pacific region:a vicious competition model has replaced the benign model as the"new normal";the checks and balances between the U.S.and China have been upgraded,and their competition in ASEANcentered institutions has strengthened as a result of the U.S.’s neglect of ASEAN;the agenda,mode and process of institutional competition have been dominated by the U.S.for China’s passive involvement in the vicious competition.The checks and balances between the U.S.and China and the upgrading of their competition have weakened ASEAN centrality in the regional multilateral institutions in different ways and to varying degrees.By analyzing the intra-institutional competition between the U.S.and China from the perspective of institutional functions with ARF as an example,the research finds that the U.S.and China are changing the nature of ASEAN centrality from within the ASEAN-led structure,especially the legitimate status of the"cooperative security"model,ASEAN’s leading power in agenda setting,the normative consistency within ASEAN,and the recognition and practice of"ASEAN Way".It is difficult for ASEAN to provide a buffer platform and bargaining rules for U.S.-China competition under the existing mechanisms.Being degraded to a secondary player in institutional competitions on regional issues and norms, ASEAN has more willingness than capability to maintain the "ASEAN Way".Caught in the new strategic environment,ASEAN has recognized the necessity and urgency of starting a new round of adaptation and innovation.While strengthening the functions of regional institutions and supporting the reconstruction of ASEAN centrality are still in line with China’s interests,in the long run,China will encounter mounting tension between supporting the reconstruction of ASEAN centrality and maintaining limited competition with the United States.

关 键 词：中美竞争 制度竞争 东盟中心地位 东盟地区论坛 东盟方式 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学] D814.1[政治法律—外交学]