基于数据拟合的继保设备失效率调整因子模型  

Adjustment Factor Model of Relay Protection Equipment Failure Rate Based on Data Fitting

作　　者：杨胡萍[1] 黄煌 何志勤 张扬 杨文思 周睿 YANG Huping;HUANG Huang;HE Zhiqin;ZHANG Yang;YANG Wensi;ZHOU Rui(School of Information Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;State Grid Yichun Power Supply Company,Yichun 336000,China;State Grid Jiangxi Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Power Dispatching Control Center,Nanchang 330077,China;State Grid Jiangxi Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Information and Communication Branch,Nanchang 330031,China;Xinchang Power Plant,SPIC Jiangxi Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang 330117,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学信息工程学院,江西南昌330031 [2]国网宜春供电公司,江西宜春336000 [3]国网江西省电力有限公司电力调度控制中心,江西南昌330077 [4]国网江西省电力有限公司通信分公司,江西南昌330031 [5]国家电投集团江西电力有限公司新昌发电分公司,江西南昌330117

出　　处：《中国电力》2021年第9期96-101,共6页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(基于多智能体异步分布式优化的配电网能量管理研究,61803165)。

摘　　要：分析继保设备检修行为对其失效率的影响,有助于继保设备检修计划制定和实现电网长期稳定可靠运行。基于某地区继电保护设备故障数据,采用Matlab工具箱对分段数据进行失效率函数拟合,然后利用遗传算法对失效率调整因子进行计算,建立基于数据拟合的失效率调整因子模型,并使用多地区的设备故障数据对该模型和德尔菲法的模型进行评估。研究结果表明:基于德尔菲法的失效率调整因子模型低估了检修行为对设备失效率的下调能力,文中模型较基于德尔菲法模型累计残差更小,能够更为准确地反映检修行为对继保设备失效率的影响。Analyzing the impact of equipment maintenance on the failure rate of relay protection equipment is helpful to the formulation of relay protection equipment maintenance plans and the realization of long-term stable and reliable operation of the power grid.Using the Matlab toolbox to fit the failure rate function of the segmented data based on the failure data of the relay protection device in a certain area.Then the genetic algorithm is used to fit the failure rate adjustment factor,a failure rate adjustment factor model based on data fitting is established.Finally,the model in paper and the model based on the Delphi method were evaluated based on equipment failure data in multiple regions.Research indicates:The failure rate adjustment factor model based on the Delphi method underestimates the ability of maintenance to reduce the failure rate of equipment.The model in the paper has a smaller cumulative residual error than the model based on the Delphi method.It can more accurately reflect the impact of maintenance on the failure rate of relay protection equipment.

关 键 词：设备检修 继电保护设备 失效率函数 数据拟合 遗传算法 

分 类 号：TM774[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]