中国城乡居民相对贫困特征及变动原因研究——基于ELES模型的实证分析  

Study on the Characteristics and Cause of Relative Poverty Changes in Urban and Rural Areas of China--Empirical Analysis Based on ELES Model

作　　者：章贵军 刘盟[2] 罗良清 ZHANG Guijun;LIU Meng;LUO Liangqing(College of Mathematics and Statistics,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350111,China;School of Statistics&Rural Revitalization Research Center,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学数学与统计学院,福建福州350117 [2]江西财经大学统计学院/乡村振兴研究中心,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《中国软科学》2021年第8期63-74,共12页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(16BTJ011)。

摘　　要：消除绝对贫困是我国脱贫攻坚时期的重要任务,缓解相对贫困则为后扶贫时期我国扶贫事业的重要内容。本文利用2010—2018年双数年份的中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,基于ELES模型测度了城镇和农村地区的相对贫困线,并采用夏普里值(Shapley Value)分解方法对贫困特征及变动原因进行了具体分析。研究结果表明:(1)基于ELES模型设定的城乡地区的相对贫困线识别贫困特征更利于反映城乡居民消费结构差异性;(2)城镇居民以选择性贫困为主,农村居民则是持久性贫困、暂时性贫困以及选择性贫困并重;(3)农村居民相对贫困问题相对于城镇居民而言贫困范围更广、贫困程度更深、贫困强度更大;(4)2010—2018年期间,经济增长有利于促进缓解城乡相对贫困,而经济增长引致的生活成本的提高则抑制了减贫效应,收入不平等性对农村减贫效应的抑制作用大于城镇。Eradication of absolute poverty is the ultimate goal of a crucial period of our country out of poverty, and relieving the relative poverty will become the important content of China’s poverty alleviation in the future.This paper utilizes the data of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), which is conducted every two years from 2010 to 2018, to measure the poverty characteristics and causes based on the relative poverty lines constructed by ELES model and the methodology of Shapley value decomposition in urban and rural areas.The results show that:(1) the relative poverty line based on ELES model is more conducive to reflect the difference of consumption structure between urban and rural residents;(2) most urban residents are in selective poverty, while rural residents are in persistent poverty、temporary poverty and selective poverty;(3) compared with urban areas, rural poverty has a wider scope, a deeper degree and a greater intensity;(4) during 2010-2018, economic growth is conducive to the alleviation of urban and rural relative poverty, while the increase of living cost caused by economic growth inhibits the poverty reduction effect.Income inequality has a greater inhibitory effect on the poverty reduction effect in rural areas than in urban areas.

关 键 词：相对贫困 ELES模型 贫困特征 夏普里值 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]