基于证据权法的湖南省石门县皂市水库滑坡易发性评价  

Landslide Susceptibility Evaluation Based on Weights of Evidence Method for the Zaoshi Reservoir in Shimen County,Hunan Province

作　　者：赵祈溶 曹顺红 文武飞 周丽芸 ZHAO Qi-Rong;CAO Shun-Hong;WEN Wu-Fei;ZHOU Li-Yun(Hunan Institute of Geological Survey,Changsha 410016,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省地质调查院,长沙410016

出　　处：《华南地质》2021年第2期216-225,共10页South China Geology

基　　金：湖南省自然资源厅项目(湖南皂市水库地质灾害补充调查与勘查)。

摘　　要：湖南省石门县皂市水库地区滑坡地质灾害频发,采用证据权法进行滑坡易发性评价可以为滑坡防治提供科学依据。本文首先以斜坡单元为基本制图单元,利用ArcGIS空间分析功能,结合历史滑坡灾害点实地复核数据、遥感影像、地形图、数字高程模型、地质图等数据,提取了坡度、坡形、斜坡高差、植被覆盖度、地层岩性、斜坡结构类型、断层缓冲距离、道路缓冲距离、河流缓冲距离等9个证据因子并划分证据层;然后基于证据权法分别计算各证据层权重值,生成了研究区滑坡易发性分区图,并进行了预测精度分析。结果表明:(1)研究区滑坡易发性可划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区、极低易发区4类,4类分区面积占比分别为7.5%、20.6%、54.9%、17.0%;(2)基于成功率曲线法得出分区准确率为84.7%,评价结果与灾害点分布较为吻合。Landslide geological disasters occur frequently in the Zaoshi reservoir area,Shimen County of Hunan Province.The evaluation of landslide susceptibility by evidence right method can provide a scientific basis for landslide prevention and control.By using historical field revision data of landslide spots,remote sensing image,topographic map,DEM and geological map,we extracted 9 evidence factors on ArcGIS,in-cluding slope,slope shape,relative elevation of slope,vegetation coverage,stratum lithology,the models of slope structure,fault buffer distance,road buffer distance and river buffer distance.The weights of evidence factors are determined and the distribution chart of landslide susceptibility are generated by overlaying pos-terior probability of evidence layer of each unit.The results show that:(1)the landslide susceptibility in the study area can be subdivided into four categories:high prone area,medium prone area,low prone area and very low prone area,whose area proportions are 7.5%,20.6%,54.9% and 17.0% respectively;(2)Based on the success rate curve method,the zoning accuracy is 84.7%,and the evaluation results are consistent with the distribution of disaster points.

关 键 词：滑坡 证据权法 易发性分区 皂市水库 湖南省石门县 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]