“十四五”时期中国住房需求变化及对策建议  

Changes in China’s Housing Demand and Suggestions for Countermeasures in the ‘14th Five-Year Plan’Period

作　　者：徐辉 荣晨 Xu Hui;Rong Chen

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [2]中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2021年第8期151-167,共17页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：未来一段时期,中国城镇住房需求总体呈现"上升—平稳—下降"的倒U型特征,按照"高城镇化率、高人口抚养比"的情景预测,住房需求达到峰值18亿平米左右趋势性下降,拐点出现在2024年。通过对住房潜在的三大需求即城镇新增人口刚性需求、城镇人口改善需求和棚户区改造需求进行测算,也验证了该结论。城镇新增人口、人口抚养比等变量具有较强的规律性,"十四五"末期中国住房需求将不再具备快速增长的条件。然而,根据其他相关因素的情景设定,控制房价涨幅、提高居民收入、缩小收入差距,中国住房需求仍能继续增长。In the coming period, China’s urban housing demand will generally show an inverted U-shaped characteristic of ‘rising-steady-declining’, and according to the scenario of ‘high urbanization rate and high population dependency ratio’, it is predicted that housing demand will reach a peak of 1.8 billion square meters and trend down, with the inflection point appearing in 2024. This conclusion is also verified by measuring the three major potential housing demands, namely, the rigid demand of new urban population, the demand for urban population improvement and the demand for shantytown renovation. The variables of new population and population dependency ratio have strong regularity, and China’s housing demand will no longer have the conditions for rapid growth at the end of the ‘14 th Five-Year Plan’. However, according to the scenarios of other relevant factors, controlling the rate of housing price increase, raising residents’ income, and narrowing the income gap, China’s housing demand can continue to grow.

关 键 词：住房需求 倒U型 情景预测 “十四五”时期 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]