基于协调性的区域水资源承载力评估模型  

Evaluation model of regional water resources carrying capacity based on coordination

作　　者：郑江丽 李兴拼 ZHENG Jiangli;LI Xingpin(Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuary Regulation and Protection of Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China;Water Resources Institute,Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Guangzhou 510611,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部珠江河口治理与保护重点实验室,广东广州510611 [2]珠江水利科学研究院水资源研究所,广东广州510611

出　　处：《水资源保护》2021年第5期30-35,共6页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：广西重点研发计划(902229136010)。

摘　　要：基于水资源、社会、经济和生态环境4个系统提出了水资源承载力评价指标体系,以系统宏观行为为研究对象,通过引入影响系统演变过程的序参量,构建了基于系统协调性的水资源承载力评估模型,并以2019年广州市水资源承载力评估为例对模型进行了验证。结果表明,从化区、中心区以及番禺区区域处于水资源超载水平,黄埔区和南沙区具有较好的水资源承载力,花都区、增城区在不同程度上面临着水资源紧张的问题,存在超载的风险,该评价结果符合广州市实际,验证了模型的有效性和适用性,可为区域水资源规划与管理提供参考。The evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity was proposed based on four systems including water resources system,social system,economic system and ecological environment system.Taking the macro behavior of the system as the research object,the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on system coordination was constructed by introducing the order parameters that affected the evolution process of the system.The model was validated by taking the assessment of water resources carrying capacity of Guangzhou in 2019 as an example.The results show that Conghua District,Central District and Panyu District are in the level of water resources overload.Huangpu District and Nansha District have better water resources carrying capacity.Huadu District and Zengcheng District are facing the problem of water resources shortage in varying degrees,and there is the risk of water resources overload.The evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of Guangzhou City,and verify the effectiveness and applicability of the model,which can provide reference for regional water resources planning and management.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 协调指数 压力指数 序参量 评估模型 广州市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]