基于改进PCM的抽水蓄能机组轴系可靠性评估  

Operation reliability evaluation method of pumped storage unit shafting based on improved PCM

作　　者：荆岫岩[1] 姬联涛 郝峰 王璞[4] 庄俊 李超顺[3] JING Xiuyan;JI Liantao;HAO Feng;WANG Pu;ZHUANG Jun;LI Chaoshun(STATE GRID Corporation of China,Beijing 100031;China Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 210003;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074)

机构地区：[1]国家电网公司水新部技术处,北京100031 [2]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,南京210003 [3]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,武汉430074 [4]国家电网公司,北京100031

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2021年第9期86-94,共9页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家电网公司科学技术项目(水电机组多场耦合振动状态感知、故障诊断及劣化趋势预警技术研究与应用)。

摘　　要：抽水蓄能机组启停频繁,工况多变,比常规水电机组更易发生故障,研究机组轴系可靠性变化规律能有效地判断机组的真实运行状态,及时发现异常,因此本文提出了一种基于改进比例协变量模型(proportional covariate model,PCM)的抽水蓄能机组轴系运行可靠性实时评估方法。改进的PCM首先通过基于马氏距离的理想解逼近法求解出初始故障率,无需大样本失效数据;其次采用多元线性回归模型建立了故障率和响应协变量之间的关系,避免人为确定基本协变量带来的主观差异性;最后通过多元线性函数对运行可靠度不断更新,动态揭示状态监测数据与可靠性的映射关系。将该方法应用到抽水蓄能机组轴系可靠性评估,结果实时反映了机组轴系的运行状态,证明了该方法的有效性和合理性。Pumped storage units are more prone to failure than conventional hydropower units because of their frequent start-up,shutdown and changing working conditions.This paper presents an improved proportional covariate model(PCM)based on a real-time evaluation method for the operational reliability of pumped storage units.This new method first solves for the initial failure rate using an ideal solution approximation method based on the Marxian distance,not demanding large sample failure data;then,a relationship between the failure rate and response covariate is established through a multiple linear regression model to avoid subjective variability brought in by artificial determination of the basic covariate.Finally,operational reliability is updated repeatedly using a multivariate linear function to dynamically reveal the mapping between the condition monitoring data and the reliability.The method has been applied to reliability assessment to the shaft system of pumped storage units,and it achieves satisfactory results that can reflect the operation status of the shaft system in real time,demonstrating its effectiveness and validity.

关 键 词：抽水蓄能机组 轴系可靠性 PCM 理想解逼近法 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：TV738[水利工程—水利水电工程]