基于人力资本溢出效应的中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”分析  

An Analysis of China’s Overcoming the“Middle Income Trap”in the Perspective of Human Capital Spillover Effects

作　　者：李正彪[1] 薛勇军[2] LI Zhengbiao;XUE Yongjun(Pan-Asia Business School,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650092,China;School of Economics and Management,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学泛亚商学院,云南昆明650092 [2]云南师范大学经济与管理学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《云南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第5期86-92,共7页Journal of Yunnan Normal University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划“创新型人才流动和评价机制:基于云南省的个案研究”(2011GXQ4D078)。

摘　　要：随着中国人均GDP的不断提高,中国距离高收入国家的门槛已是近在咫尺,而中国会不会陷入“中等收入陷阱”也引起学者们的讨论。中国能否跨越“中等收入陷阱”,关键在于中国经济能否实现高质量发展。该文采用卢卡斯两部门模型的思路,借鉴新古典经济增长模型的推导方法,推导出经济均衡增长路径,进而从人力资本外溢效应角度解释如何实现经济高质量发展。在此基础上结合中国的实际情况对中国能否跨越“中等收入陷阱”进行分析。研究结果表明:当前中国投资率较高,人口增长率较低,劳动者用于工作的时间较长,这些都有助于提高中国人均收入水平。中国人力资本存量较大,由此决定的人力资本外溢性较大,并且中国也拥有了一些领先世界的高新技术,这些有助于中国经济实现高质量发展,因此中国完全能够跨越“中等收入陷阱”。在当前新一轮技术革命下,应该贯彻新发展理念,坚持实施创新驱动发展战略,采取措施进一步加大人力资本投入,全面推动我国经济高质量发展。In recent years,with the continuity of economic improvement,China’s per capita GDP has reached the threshold of high-income countries.At the same time,whether China will fall into the“middle-income trap”has also been debated by many scholars.Whether China can overcome the“middle-income trap”depends on whether China’s economy can achieve high-quality development.This paper deduces a balanced economic growth path by using the idea of Lucas’s two-sector model and the deduction method of the neoclassical economic growth model.Then it explains how to achieve high-quality economic development from the perspective of human capital spillover effects.On this basis and with a consideration of China’s actual situation,it analyzes whether China can overcome the“middle-income trap”.The results show that the higher investment rate,the lower population growth rate and the longer working hours in China all contribute to the improvement of China’s per capita income level.China’s stock of human capital is large,which will lead to large human capital spillovers,and China also has some of the world’s leading high-technologies,which helps China’s economy to achieve high-quality development.So China can overcome the“middle-income trap”.In the current new round of technological revolution,we should implement the new development concept,adhere to the strategy of innovation-driven development,take measures to further increase investment in human capital,and comprehensively promote China’s high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：人力资本 溢出效应 高质量发展 “中等收入陷阱” 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]