牙买加货币体系演变的前景  

Prospects for the Evolution of Jamaica’s Currency System

作　　者：黄泽民 HUANG Ze-min

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学部,上海200062

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第5期197-211,241,共16页Journal of East China Normal University（Humanities and Social Sciences）

摘　　要：在新冠疫情肆虐的背景下,由来已久的去美元化和美元解体的议论,更加成为很有市场的观点之一。然而,牙买加货币体系走向何方,既要从牙买加货币体系产生的原因、国际货币体系的理论与历史中去寻找,更要从世界政治经济发展的趋势中去探索。黄金的稀缺性等因素决定了金本位制难以恢复,以特别提款权为代表的超主权货币缺乏信用与经济基础也不可能成为世界本位货币。如果世界经济一体化发展依然是主流,通过长期演化,美元、人民币和欧元等三币种本位制将可能替代目前的美元本位制;如果逆全球化成为主流,随着世界经济格局的深刻变化,国际社会有可能分裂为若干个货币区,当然,这种可能性较小。In the context of the raging COVID-19 pandemics,the long-standing discussion of de-dollarization and the disintegration of the U.S.dollar has become one of the most marketable views.However,to find out where Jamaica’s currency system is heading,we need explore its causes,the theory and history of the international currency system,and the world trend of political and economic development.The scarcity of gold and other factors determine that the gold standard system is difficult to restore.The super-sovereign currency represented by the special drawing rights lacks credit and economic foundation and thus cannot become the world standard currency.If the development of world economic integration remains dominant,the three-currency standard system of the U.S.dollar,RMB and Euro may replace the current U.S.dollar standard after long-term evolution.If anti-globalization becomes the mainstream,the international community may be divided into several currency areas as the world economic structure changes profoundly.Of course,such a possibility is relatively small.

关 键 词：美元本位制 牙买加货币体系 特别提款权 金本位制 三币种本位制 

分 类 号：F821.6[经济管理—财政学]