财政、货币与汇率政策协调配合的路径选择——基于对价格决定作用的分析  

Path Choice of Coordination among Fiscal,Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies:Based on the Analysis of the Role of Price Determination

作　　者：邓晓兰[1] 孙长鹏 Deng Xiaolan;Sun Changpeng

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2021年第8期1-13,共13页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“减税降费与财政可持续研究”(19XJY020)。

摘　　要：在“双循环”战略、“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标背景下,“央财之争”“汇率操纵”争议不断,财政、货币与汇率政策协调配合问题突出。本文通过扩展价格财政论与三元悖论,结合危机冲击等大事件与全样本多变量高频时序数据,运用分段与整体、线性与非线性实证回归,从当期均值、跨期累积与条件分布解析基础货币、政府债务与外汇占款对价格的决定作用。研究发现,1949年以来,财政、货币与汇率政策关系经历不同频次区制转换,具有竞争与协作、总量作用与结构影响并存的时间异质性,财政政策中长期持续推升价格,汇率政策重点推升中高价格,削弱货币政策独立性。深化体制改革和是否施行现代货币理论将形成新的政策路径。Under the background of the"Dual Circulation"strategy,the"14th Five-Year Plan"and the long-term goals of 2035,the disputes of"responsibilities of central bank and ministry of finance"and"exchange rate manipulation"never stop,and the coordination of fiscal,monetary and exchange rate policies is outstanding.By expanding fiscal theory of price level and impossible trinity,combining major events such as crisis impacts with full sample multivariate high frequency time series data,using piecewise and integral,linear and nonlinear empirical regressions,this paper analyzes the role of base currency,government debt and foreign exchange in determining prices from current mean,intertemporal accumulation and conditional distribution.It is found that since 1949,the relationship among fiscal,monetary and exchange rate policies has experienced the transformations of regime with different frequencies,which has time heterogeneity of both competition and cooperation,total effect and structural influence,fiscal policy continues to push up prices in the medium and long term,while exchange rate policy focuses on pushing up medium and high prices,weakening monetary policy independence.Deepening system reforms and whether to implement modern monetary theory will form new policy paths.

关 键 词：财政政策 货币政策 汇率政策 价格财政论 三元悖论 现代货币理论 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]