行业产能过剩如何影响正常企业出口?  

How Does Industrial Overcapacity Affect Normal Firms’ Exports?

作　　者：陈爱贞[1] 葛海燕 何诚颖 CHEN Aizhen;GE Haiyan;HE Chengying(Xiamen University,Xiamen,China;Guangxi University,Nanning,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,361005 [2]广西大学商学院,530004

出　　处：《经济学动态》2021年第7期82-98,共17页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国产业创新发展战略研究”(15ZDC013);国家自然科学基金面上项目“并购与创新:基于中国装备制造业理论与实证研究”(71573219)。

摘　　要：根据企业微观数据的研究发现,相比于产能过剩企业,作为中国出口主力的正常企业(非产能过剩企业)的新增出口率虽然更高但出口退出率也更高,平均出口持续时间更短,使得其总的出口倾向更低;相比于非产能过剩行业的正常企业,产能过剩行业内正常企业的新增出口率更低、出口退出率更高,使得其出口持续率和出口倾向更低。那么,正常企业的出口行为受到行业产能过剩怎样的影响?本文基于2000—2007年间中国工业企业数据,验证了产能过剩的加重会显著抑制行业内正常企业的出口倾向和出口规模,利用2000—2013年间数据进行稳健性检验后发现该结果依然成立。机制分析表明,行业产能过剩会通过融资约束和技术钳制两条途径影响正常企业出口。进一步对正常企业出口规模进行分解,发现产能过剩会导致行业内正常企业长期采取"低价跑量"的出口竞争模式。调节机制检验发现,FDI开放和金融市场化能缓解行业产能过剩对正常企业出口的抑制效应。本文研究有助于深化对出口疲软与产能过剩并存困境的理解,并为化解产能过剩之余重视市场开放以促进出口发展提供实践支撑。Compared to firms with overcapacity, normal firms(firms without overcapacity) have higher exporters’ market entry rates, exit rates and shorter export duration, which led to lower export probabilities. Compared to normal firms in non-overcapacity industries, normal firms in overcapacity industries have lower exporters’ market entry rates and higher exit rates, resulting in lower export duration and probabilities. Then, how does industrial overcapacity affect normal firms’ exports? Based on the annual survey of industrial firms from 2000 to 2007, this paper verifies that the aggravation of industrial overcapacity would significantly inhibit the export probability and scale of normal firms. Robustness check using the data between 2000 and 2013 suggests the results are still valid. The mechanism analysis show that financing constraints and technical clampdown are potential channels. According to the decomposition of export scale, we find that normal firms would increase export volumes and quantities, but decrease prices. Further research find that FDI openness and financial marketization can alleviate the negative effect of industrial overcapacity on normal firms. This study helps to deepen understanding of the dilemma of weak export and overcapacity, and provides support for attaching importance to market openness to promote export.

关 键 词：产能过剩 正常企业出口 融资约束 技术钳制 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F425[经济管理—产业经济]