城镇女性劳动供给长期趋势研究:来自教育扩张和生育行为的解释  

The Research on the Long-term Trend of Female Labor Supply in Urban China: The Explanation from Educational Expansion and Birth Behaviour

作　　者：詹鹏 毛逸波 李实 ZHAN Peng;MAO Yi-bo;LI Shi(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Institute for Common Prosperity and Development,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Economics,Nanjing University and Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210046,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学共享与发展研究院 [2]南京财经大学经济学院 [3]浙江大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2021年第8期56-74,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国农村家庭数据库建设及其应用研究”(批准号18ZDA080);江苏省自然科学基金青年项目“中国养老保障动态微观模拟型研究”(批准号BK20190788)。

摘　　要：中国女性劳动参与率持续几十年下降,在当前人口老龄化日益严峻的形势下,有必要深入剖析这一趋势背后的原因和机制。本文使用1995—2018年中国家庭收入调查数据、县域统计年鉴数据和来自百度地图的幼儿园分布数据,构造两层分解模型,重点研究了教育扩张和生育行为的影响。研究发现,教育扩张能够解释1995—2002年城镇年轻女性劳动参与率变化的68%,是2002年之前趋势的主要原因。2002—2013年,生育行为对女性劳动供给的影响由不显著转为负向显著,使得城镇已婚女性劳动参与率下降7.00个百分点(即"系数效应"),占全部下降幅度的83.95%;不过,由于生育子女的女性比例下降,城镇已婚女性劳动参与率上升2.19个百分点(即"禀赋效应")。进一步研究发现,生育行为在2013年和2018年对女性劳动参与率的影响主要发生在幼儿年龄为0—5岁期间;2018年,0—5岁幼儿若接受学前教育,会提高女性劳动参与率;学前教育的影响机制是,高昂经济成本迫使女性进入劳动力市场,同时增加隔代照料的概率。本文的结果有助于理解教育扩张和生育行为在不同时期对女性劳动供给的影响特征,据此,从经济上缓解生育负担对于提高人口生育率和缓解女性劳动供给下降具有重要意义。Along with the severe situation of population aging, the female labor participation rate has shown a downward trend that has continued for decades. It is necessary to deeply understand the reasons and mechanisms behind it. This paper uses the data from 1995—2018 China Household Income Project(CHIP), county statistical yearbooks and kindergarten distribution data from Baidu Maps to construct two decomposition models, focusing on the impact of educational expansion and birth behavior. The study found that educational expansion can explain68% of the change in the labor participation rate of urban young women from 1995 to 2002, which was the main reason before 2002. During the period 2002—2013, the impact of birth behaviors on female labor supply changed into significant negative, causing the urban married female labor participation rate to drop by 7.00 percentage points(coefficient effect), accounting for 83.95% of the total decline;however, the decline in the proportion of childbearing women increased the urban married female labor participation rate 2.19 percentage points(endowment effect). Further research found that the impact of birth behavior in 2013 and 2018 mainly occurred when children were aged 0—5 years. Preschool education of 0—5 years old children in 2018 helped to increase the labor participation rate of their mothers and offset the impact of birth behavior. The impact mechanism is that high economic costs force women to enter the labor market while increasing the probability of inter-generational care.The results of this article are helpful to understand the characteristics of the impact of educational expansion and birth behaviors on women’s labor supply in different periods. At the same time, it is pointed out that economically alleviating the burden of fertility is of great significance for increasing the population’s fertility rate and alleviating the decline in women’s labor supply.

关 键 词：女性劳动参与 生育行为 教育扩张 学前教育 分解模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]