“三重挤压”下的文在寅政府对朝政策  

The Moon Jae-in Government's Policy towards North Korea under the“Triple Squeeze”

作　　者：翟福生 Zhai Fusheng

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2021年第5期108-124,I0004,共18页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

基　　金：中国社会科学院重点学科“中国周边外交”项目阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文在寅上台后,韩国政府对朝政策旋即改弦更张,从对抗走向和平和解。但特朗普政府将朝鲜视为外部威胁,对朝奉行“极限施压”。在美军事威慑和经济高压制裁下,南北关系虽实现了形式上的缓和,但文在寅政府的对朝政策受到美国严重挤压。朝鲜作为朝核问题当事国,其选择性响应文在寅政府的对朝政策,并利用灵活外交策略调动韩国,对文在寅政府的对朝政策形成反向塑造。从韩国内部看,在2022年总统大选背景下,围绕对朝政策的博弈日趋激烈,文在寅发展南北关系受到内部权力斗争的掣肘。拜登上台后,美韩同盟关系逐步修复,美对文在寅政府的外交政策挤压将有所缓解,但朝鲜并未表现出发展朝美关系和缓和北南关系的浓厚兴趣。未来文在寅政府的对朝政策收效几何,仍需要打上一个问号。After Moon Jae-in took office,the South Korean government's policy toward North Korea immediately changed its course,moving from confrontation to peaceful reconciliation.However,the Trump administration regards North Korea as an external threat and pursues“maximum pressure”on North Korea.Under the US military deterrence and high economic pressure sanctions,although the North-South relations have achieved a formal relaxation,the Moon Jae-in administration's North Korea policy has been severely squeezed by the United States.As a country involved in the North Korean nuclear issue,North Korea selectively responded to the Moon Jae-in administration's North Korea policy,and used flexible diplomatic strategies to mobilize South Korea,forming a reverse shaping of the Moon Jae-in administration's North Korea policy.From an internal perspective in South Korea,in the context of the 2022 presidential election,the game surrounding the DPRK policy has become increasingly fierce,and Moon Jae-in's development of North-South relations is hampered by internal power struggles.After Biden took office,the alliance between the United States and South Korea was gradually restored.The foreign policy squeeze of the United States on the Moon Jae-in administration will be eased,but North Korea has not shown a keen interest in developing US-DPRK relations and easing North-South relations.In the future,the effectiveness of Moon Jae-ingovernment's North Korea policy is still a questionable.

关 键 词：文在寅政府 对朝政策 三重挤压 美韩同盟 韩朝关系 朝鲜半岛 

分 类 号：D731.2[政治法律—政治学]