从日本经济表现看“长期停滞”的典型特征  

Characteristics of Long-term Economic Stagnation from the Perspective of Japanese Economy

作　　者：蔡昉[1] Cai Fang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院

出　　处：《日本学刊》2021年第4期1-14,144,148,共16页Japanese Studies

摘　　要：二战后,日本在经济发展过程中,经历了两个人口转折点及其对经济增长的冲击。20世纪90年代初,日本的劳动年龄人口达到峰值,标志着人口红利的消失,导致经济潜在增长率降低;2009年,日本的总人口达到峰值,强化了总需求对经济增长的抑制作用。由于形势误判和政策滥用,日本既未能实际促进全要素生产率提高,造成潜在增长率一降再降,也未能有效改善可持续的需求因素,使实际增长率经常性低于增长潜力。这致使日本经济陷入"长期停滞",表现出低通货膨胀率、低长期利率、低经济增长率等典型特征。其他发达国家陷入经济长期停滞状况时也常常被称为"日本化"。包括中国在内的新兴经济体面临着人口老龄化困扰,如何避免人口转变冲击经济增长,日本经验可以成为有益的镜鉴。Since the end of WWII,Japan has experienced two turning points of population and their impact on economic growth.In the early 1990 s,the labor population in Japan reached the peak,marking the disappearance of the demographic dividend and causing a decline in potential economic growth.In 2009,the total population in Japan reached the peak,strengthening the constraining effect of aggregate demand on economic growth.Due to some misjudgment and policy mistakes,Japan has failed to actually promote its total factor productivity,resulting in a reduction in potential growth rates and having not effectively improved sustainable demand factors,making the actual growth rate less frequent than the growth potential.That has plunged the Japanese economy into a"chronic stagnation",showing the typical characteristics of low inflation,low long-term interest rate and low economic growth rate.Other developed countries are often known as"Japanese modernization"when they experience prolonged economic stagnation.Emerging economies,including China,are also facing the problem of aging population,and Japan’s experience can provide useful lessons in tackling the impacts of population change.

关 键 词：反设事实分析 日本化 人口老龄化 长期停滞 

分 类 号：F131.3[经济管理—世界经济]