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作 者:陈朴 林垚 刘凯[1] CHEN Pu;LIN Yao;LIU Kai(School of Economics,Renmin University of China;School of Economics,Sichuan University)
机构地区:[1]中国人民大学经济学院,100872 [2]四川大学经济学院,610065
出 处:《经济研究》2021年第6期40-57,共18页Economic Research Journal
基 金:国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJL023);北京高校“双一流”建设的资助。
摘 要:本文通过构建多部门和多区域动态一般均衡模型定量研究全国统一大市场建设在过去20年对中国经济增长的影响。模型能够刻画生产率、产品流动性摩擦、劳动力流动摩擦以及投资效率的动态变化特征。通过将模型应用于30个省级行政区域并进行校准,本文研究了中国从1997—2012年间的经济增长,发现生产率冲击和投资冲击是经济增长的重要推动力。此外,贸易壁垒冲击和劳动力流动成本冲击也对增长产生了积极的影响。相对国际贸易壁垒对经济的影响,省际间贸易壁垒冲击的影响更强。此外,劳动力流动成本冲击对产出增长的贡献伴随时间推移越来越重要。利用本文的模型,我们还在一般均衡视角下分析了广东省生产率提高所带来的区域传导效应以及北京和上海劳动力流入壁垒上升对中国经济的影响。通过数值模拟分析还发现,对劳动力市场和产品流通进行改革以构建更高层次的全国统一大市场,减少劳动力流动摩擦和产品流动摩擦,能够进一步激发中国经济增长的潜力。In the past 70 years,especially in the 40 years since the reform and opening up,China has experienced rapid economic growth.China has developed to be one of the largest economies in the world.The essence of the reform and opening up can be summarized as two aspects.One is to gradually build an efficient national unified market,and strive to realize the free flow of various production factors as well as products and services across the country;the other is to actively integrate into the world market and deeply participate in the international division of labor.Both of these two aspects are the fundamental driving forces that promote the sustained and rapid growth of the China’s economy.Among them,the establishment of a market economy system and the construction of a national unified market are particularly important.The construction of a unified national market can increase total factor productivity,thereby promoting long-term economic growth.In the past few decades,China’s economic growth has depended on the construction of a unified national market.In the next decade,the Chinese economy will continue to promote the construction of a higher-level national unified market.With the rapid growth of China’s economy,various distortions that affected China’s development have gradually weakened.Therefore,the inter-regional interaction caused by factors such as inter-regional trade and labor mobility has become an important mechanism for understanding economic growth.In this context,we first measure the flow friction between the elements in different regions and characterize their changes over time.Then we quantitatively analyze the impacts of inter-regional factors on economic growth and calculate their contribution to economic growth.This paper constructs a multi-region and multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model to quantitatively analyze the impact of the construction of a national unified market on China’s economic growth.The establishment of our model mainly relies on Eaton et al.(2016).We extend the
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