限购政策的空间溢出与土地资源配置效率  

Housing Purchase Restriction Policy Spillover and Land Allocation Efficiency

作　　者：陈钊[1] 申洋 CHEN Zhao;SHEN Yang(China Center for Economic Studies,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心,200433

出　　处：《经济研究》2021年第6期93-109,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(21ZDA009)。

摘　　要：本文考察了始于大城市的住房限购政策对于住房市场泡沫的空间转移以及住宅用地出让空间布局的影响。研究发现,限购政策导致部分非限购城市房地产市场泡沫程度相对上升,并且商业住宅用地出让在政策实施后也向非限购城市倾斜。由于非限购城市经济活跃程度并没有因此增加且并非城市化过程中主要的人口流入地,这就意味着限购政策的空间溢出不仅放大了泡沫转移可能造成的房地产市场风险,也加剧了土地资源的空间错配。本文研究为决策部门更好地落实总书记关于房子"不是用来炒的定位"提供了研究依据及未来政策优化的方向。In response to the soaring house price,the State Council issued a housing purchase restriction policy(Circular of the State Council on Resolutely Curbing the Excessive Rise of House Prices in Some Cities)on April 17,2010.Since then,46 cities have implemented restriction policies before 2012.This is the first time that the central government intervenes in the housing market from the demand side and takes steps in most of the large cities.Most of the existing literature has proved the effectiveness of the housing purchase restriction policy on house prices.However,there has been no literature show that how the policy affects bubbles in the real estate market,which is especially important.The goal of the policy is to curb the overspeculation in the housing market.However,high house price does not mean housing speculation,but bubbles in the housing market is the necessary result of the speculation.Additionally,since the policy has been adopted by large cities,it is crucial to identify whether house bubbles will shift to non-restricted cities,which helps us to further understand the policy implication from the perspective of housing market risk.This paper first presents a simple theoretical model to illustrate how to measure house bubbles.The idea is that house price depends both on the supply-demand relationship of residential purpose and house price bubbles determined by speculation.However,house rent has nothing to do with house bubbles.Therefore,the difference between cities in the deviation degree between house price and rent can reflect the difference between cities in the change of bubble factors.We investigate the changes of bubbles across non-restricted cities with different sizes since the housing purchase restriction policy has been implemented by using monthly house price and rent data by a difference-in-difference(DID)empirical design.The data is collected from the Wind Economic Database and China City Statistical Yearbooks.We also combine land transaction data and urban employment data to examine the eff

关 键 词：限购 空间溢出 土地配置效率 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]