“八五”时期以来中国北方灌溉投资的变化趋势及村庄新增灌溉投资的影响因素  

The Changing Trend of Irrigation Investment in Northern China Since the Eighth Five-year Plan Period and the Factors Affecting the New Irrigation Investment in Villages

作　　者：王转林 王金霞 陈煌[3,4] 关宝珠 邓洪波[5] WANG Zhuanlin;WANG Jinxia;CHEN Huang;GUAN Baozhu;DENG Hongbo

机构地区：[1]北京大学现代农学院 [2]北京大学中国农业政策研究中心 [3]厦门大学经济学院 [4]厦门大学邹至庄经济研究中心 [5]中国科学院大学

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2021年第8期103-124,共22页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“INFEWS:U.S.-China:提高区域食物—能源—水系统的可持续性:基于潜在的气候和发展情景下美国东南区域和中国华北平原的跨区域综合集成对比研究”(项目编号:4171101461);国家自然科学基金项目“海河流域农村区域地下水超采综合治理措施的成效评估”(项目编号:7187041288);澳大利亚国际农业研究中心项目“Understanding the Drivers of Successful and Inclusive Rural Regional Transformation:Sharing Experiences and Policy Advice in Bangladesh,China,Indonesia and Pakistan”(项目编号:ADP/2017/024)的资助。

摘　　要：随着中国农业生产格局的变化,北方地区的灌溉投资对于保障国家粮食安全的重要性更加凸显。本文根据在中国北方地区开展的村级跟踪调查,描述了"八五"时期以来中国北方地区灌溉投资的变化趋势,并解析其背后的政策因素,进一步通过构建计量模型探究了水资源短缺状况、已有灌溉条件、当地经济条件、耕地资源禀赋对村庄是否获得新增灌溉投资的影响。研究结果表明,"八五"时期以来,随着国家在宏观政策上对农田水利建设的逐渐重视,北方地区新增灌溉投资总额不断增长;但新增灌溉投资的村级覆盖范围需要进一步扩大;农村税费改革和国家财税体制改革等政策动因使得政府尤其是中央政府承担起新增灌溉投资的主导角色;随着政府对节水灌溉设施支持力度的加大,节水灌溉已经得到了迅速发展。计量回归结果表明,水资源短缺越严重的村庄不一定越有可能获得新增灌溉投资;新增灌溉投资具有"马太效应",即已有灌溉条件越好的地区越有可能获得新增灌溉投资;当地经济条件越好的村庄越有可能从社区获得新增灌溉投资,耕地资源禀赋越好的村庄越有可能从政府获得新增灌溉投资;村庄从政府获得新增灌溉投资与从社区获得新增灌溉投资之间存在"挤入效应"。最后,本文基于研究结论得出政策启示。With the change of agricultural production pattern in China,the importance of irrigation investment in Northern China for securing food supply has become increasingly prominent.Based on a village-level follow-up survey carried out in the Northern China,this article analyzes the changing trend of irrigation investment in this region since the Eighth Five-year Plan period and analyzes the policy factors behind it.Furthermore,an econometric model is constructed to explore the effects of water shortage,existing irrigation conditions,local economic conditions and arable land resource endowment on whether the village can obtain new irrigation investment.The results show that since the Eighth Five-year Plan period,with the gradual attention of the government to the construction of irrigation and water conservancy in the macro policies,the total amount of new irrigation investment in northern China has been continuously increasing.However,the coverage of new irrigation investment at the village level needs to be further expanded.Rural tax reform and national fiscal and taxation system reform have made the government,especially the central government,play a leading role in new irrigation investment.Water-saving irrigation has developed rapidly with the increase of government support for water-saving irrigation facilities.The results of econometric regressions show that the villages with more serious water shortage are not necessarily willing to obtain new irrigation investment.The new irrigation investment has a"Matthew effect",that is,the better the existing irrigation conditions,the more likely the new irrigation investment is to be obtained.Villages with better local economic conditions are more likely to receive irrigation investment from the community,and villages with better cultivated land resources are more likely to obtain new irrigation investment from the government.There is a"crowding-in effect"between the new irrigation investment obtained by the villages from the government and the new irrigation investment

关 键 词：新增灌溉投资 北方地区 水资源短缺 灌溉条件 

分 类 号：F323.9[经济管理—产业经济]