基于STIRPAT模型的山西省能源碳排放影响因素及峰值预测  

Influencing factors and peak forecast of energy carbon emission in Shanxi based on STIRPAT model

作　　者：关敏捷 袁艳红[1] 冉木希 王子 GUAN Minjie;YUAN Yanhong;RAMZI Abbes;FIRAS Trabelsi(College of Economics and Management,Taiyuan University of Technology,Jinzhong,Shanxi 030600,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学经济管理学院,山西省晋中市030600

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2021年第9期48-55,共8页China Coal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(11901422)。

摘　　要：运用IPCC法测算了山西省2000-2019年能源碳排放量,通过STIRPAT扩展模型及岭回归定量分析了山西省能源碳排放影响因素,并研究预测不同情景下山西省2020-2050年能源碳排放量及达峰时间。研究结果表明:人口因素对山西省能源碳排放的影响最大,其次是能源结构;情景预测结果显示,在能源结构优化情景模式下,山西省能源碳排放于2025年最先达到峰值,峰值量为56948.38万t,但低碳情景模式下的碳峰值量最低,为56735.24万t。在人口经济稳步增长的同时,加速优化能源结构、降低对煤炭的依赖程度、提高能源效率是山西省在2030年能源碳排放量达到峰值的重要保障,是适合山西省生态文明建设和可持续发展的重要方向。The IPCC method is used to measure the energy carbon emission of Shanxi from 2000 to 2019,and the STIRPAT extended model and ridge regression are used to quantitatively analyze the factors influencing the energy carbon emission in Shanxi,and the energy carbon emission and the time of carbon peak in Shanxi from 2020 to 2050 under different scenarios are studied and predicted.The results show that the population factor has the greatest influence on the energy carbon emission in Shanxi,followed by the energy structure.The scenario prediction results show that under the energy structure optimization scenario,the energy carbon emission of Shanxi will reach the peak first in 2025,with the peak value of 569.4838 million tons,while under the low-carbon scenario,the peak value of carbon emissions is the lowest,567.3524 million tons.While the population and economy grow steadily,accelerating the optimization of energy structure,reducing the dependence on coal and improving energy efficiency are important guarantees for the energy carbon emission of Shanxi reaching the peak in 2030,and are important directions of ecological civilization construction and sustainable development of Shanxi.

关 键 词：STIRPAT模型 山西省 能源碳排放 峰值预测 岭回归 情景分析 

分 类 号：TK-9[动力工程及工程热物理] F222[经济管理—国民经济]