基于集成DEMATEL/ISM方法的东北林区贮木场火灾风险研究  

Study on Fire Risk of Timber Yard in Northeast China Based on Integrated DEMATEL/ISM

作　　者：李奇 薛伟[1] 张华超[1,2] LI Qi;XUE Wei;ZHANG Huachao(College of Engineering and Technology,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China;Baihe Forestry Bureau of Jilin Province,Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture 133000,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学工程技术学院,哈尔滨150040 [2]吉林省白河林业局,吉林延边朝鲜族自治州133000

出　　处：《森林工程》2021年第5期56-64,共9页Forest Engineering

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金(E2016002)。

摘　　要：为深入了解东北林区贮木场火灾风险发生机制,基于系统论、事故致因理论和危险源理论等,建立包含5个方面、17个因素的贮木场火灾风险影响指标体系,使用集成决策实验室分析法(Decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory,DEMATEL)/解释结构模型法(Interpretative structural modeling method,ISM),缩写为DEMATEL/ISM方法,根据影响因素间的相互作用关系,构建因素间影响关系矩阵,建立因素解释结构模型,从而分析东北林区贮木场火灾风险影响因素的重要程度,并明确因素间的逻辑关系。结果表明,东北林区贮木场消防安全影响因素体系包括8个原因因素、9个结果因素,构建为5级4阶的多级递阶结构,从直接原因、间接原因和根本原因方面提出具体火灾风险管控措施。以吉林省白河林业局宝马林场贮木场为例验证该模型可行性,从而为东北林区贮木场的安全生产、科学管理及消防安全决策提供理论依据。In order to deeply understand the fire risk mechanism of northeast forest yard,based on the system theory,accident cause theory and hazard source theory,a fire risk impact index system including 5 aspects and 17 factors was established,and then the integrated Decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory and Interpretative structural modeling method(DEMATEL/ISM method)was used,according to the interaction between the influencing factors,the matrix of the influencing factors was constructed,the structural model of factor interpretation was established,the importance of the influencing factors of the fire risk of the log yard in northeast forest area was analyzed,and the logical relationship between the factors was clarified.The results showed that the fire safety influencing factor system of northeast forest area log yard included 8 cause factors and 9 result factors,which was constructed into a 5-grade and 4-level hierarchical structure.Specific fire risk control measures were put forward from the aspects of direct cause,indirect cause and fundamental cause.The feasibility of the model was verified by taking the log yard of Baoma forest of jilin Baihe Bureau farm as an example,so as to provide theoretical basis for the safe production,scientific management and fire safety decision-making of the log yard in northeast forest area.

关 键 词：火灾风险 东北林区贮木场 DEMATEL方法 解释结构模型 火灾影响因素 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]