宏观经济变量对互联网金融网贷客户信用风险的影响 --基于客户群体差异的视角  

Impact of macroeconomic variable on credit risk of customer in Internet finance--In the perspective of customer group differences

作　　者：熊正德[1,2] 孙萌婕 XIONG Zheng-de;SUN Meng-jie(School of Business Administration,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China;Strategic Emerging Industry Development Research Center,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,长沙410082 [2]湖南大学战略性新兴产业发展研究中心,长沙410082

出　　处：《天津商业大学学报》2021年第5期29-37,共9页Journal of Tianjin University of Commerce

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国数字创意产业跨界融合研究”(17BJY002);湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会重大课题“产业链重构背景下湖南文旅深度融合发展研究”(XSP21ZDA010);湖南省社科基金决策咨询专项重大课题“新常态下加快湖南战略性新兴产业发展的政策研究”(16JCA003)。

摘　　要：从客户群体差异视角出发,实证研究了宏观经济变量对互联网金融网贷两类客户信用风险的不同影响。结果表明,居民消费价格指数、贷款利率和制造业采购经理人指数与互联网金融网贷客户违约率相关性较大,其中居民消费价格指数和制造业采购经理人指数分别是工薪阶层和私营业主客户违约率最主要的影响因素;互联网金融网贷两类客户违约率均具有一定的历史记忆性,但长期影响并不突出;互联网金融网贷私营业主客户违约率对各宏观经济变量变动的反应幅度和持续时间都在工薪阶层客户之上。In the perspective of customer group differences,the paper makes an empirical study of how macroeconomic variable affects the credit risk of two customer groups with the credit default data of customers on one Internet finance platform in China.The results show that consumer price index(CPI),interest rate(IR)and purchasing managers’index(PMI)have high correlation with credit default rate of consumers in Internet finance.In addition,CPI and PMI are the top variables of default rate of wage-earning class and private entrepreneur respectively.The default rate of two customer groups in Internet finance has a certain historical memory,but the impact is not obvious in the long run.As far as default rate is concerned,the amplitude of response to the variation of macroeconomic variable and the duration of private entrepreneur are above those of wage-earning class in Internet finance.

关 键 词：互联网金融 信用风险 宏观经济变量 工薪阶层 私营业主 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]