人口视域下能源效率、产业结构升级的经济增长路径研究  

Research on the Economic Growth Path of Energy Efficiency and Industrial Structure Upgrading from the Perspective of Population

作　　者：逯进[1] 刘俊琦 张晓峒[2] LU Jin;LIU Jun-qi;ZHANG Xiao-tong

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266071 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第5期82-100,共19页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“人口结构转变对我国经济发展影响的时空演化机制研究”(18BJL117)。

摘　　要：基于中国30个省级经济体2000—2017年数据,采用带有人口伴随变量的有限混合模型,依据变量特征将各省份的经济增长客观聚类为多条路径,据此讨论了人口结构因素影响下不同省份能源效率、产业结构升级对经济增长影响的异质性特征及各省份隶属增长路径的动力转换机制。结果表明,能源效率、产业结构升级对经济增长的影响存在明显的异质性,并可客观分为三类增长路径进行描述与比较。同时,劳动人口占比、人力资本与城镇化率是不同省份增长路径存有差异的重要决定性因素。更为重要的是,中国大部分省份的增长路径并非一成不变,而是随着时间的推移发生了路径转换,且劳动人口占比与人力资本可以有效解释路径转换的动力机制。Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,this paper adopts a finite mixture model with population adjoint variables,and clusters the economic growth of each province into multiple paths based on the objective characteristics of the variables.With this method,the paper discusses the heterogeneity characteristics of the impact of energy efficiency and industrial structure upgrading on economic growth in different provinces under the influence of population structure factors.The dynamic transformation mechanism of growth path subordinate to each province is discussed as well.The results show that the impact of energy efficiency and industrial structure upgrading on economic growth is heterogeneous.The growth path can be classified into three types.The proportion of labor force,human capital and urbanization rate are decisive factors for different provinces in their choice of growth path.It is noted that the growth path of most of Chinese provincial economies is not static,but changes over time.Moreover,the proportion of labor force and human capital help explain the dynamic mechanism of its path conversion.

关 键 词：能源效率 产业结构升级 经济增长 异质性 路径转换 

分 类 号：F124.6[经济管理—世界经济]