日本规避石油危机转向社会危机的顶层设计——基于心理传导路径的分析  

Japan's Top-Level Designs for Avoiding the Shift from Oil Crisis to Social Crisis——An Analysis Based on Psychological Transmission Path

作　　者：尹晓亮 YIN Xiao-liang(Japan Institute, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学日本研究院,天津300071

出　　处：《日本问题研究》2021年第4期37-44,共8页Japanese Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“战后日本核政策研究”(16ASS002);南开大学亚洲研究中心资助项目(AS1913)。

摘　　要：石油危机的传导有两条路径:从实体路径而言,主要呈现出的是“石油危机—经济危机—社会危机”的传导路径;从心理路径而言,主要呈现出的是“石油危机—心理危机—行为失范—社会失序”的传导路径。在行政层面,日本从弱化、规避、分散、稀释、转嫁等不同取向的角度,为构建稳定的社会“心理定势”设计并实施了“新能源开发政策”“多元化能源进口政策”“能源多样化政策”“节能政策”“石油储备政策”等。在法律层面,日本从“长期性”“强制性”“战略性”和“全民性”等不同取向的角度,设计出了“石油二法”(《石油供需合理化法案》《国民生活安定紧急措施法案》)、《石油替代立法》《石油储备立法》《节能法》等。此外,日本为使顶层设计的政策体系能顺利贯彻实施并起到良好效果,在资金、税收、奖惩等方面,相应地进行了激励政策设计。从经验事实而言,行政层面、法律层面与激励层面等3个层面的政策体系及其互动耦合,分别从“稳心”“安心”“放心”“省心”和“宽心”等不同角度,为渐次形成沉着、冷静和有序的“心理定势”奠定了基础。There are two paths to the transmission of the oil crisis:entity path and psychological path.In terms of the entity path,it mainly presents the transmission way of“oil crisis-economic crisis-social crisis”;while from the psychological path,it is“oil crisis-psychological crisis-behavioral disorder-social disorder”.At the administrative level,Japan has designed and implemented the“New Energy Development Policy”,“Diversified Energy Import Policy”,“Energy Diversification Policy”,“Energy saving policy”and“oil storage policy”for the purpose of building a stable social“mental set”from different perspectives,such as weakening,avoiding,dispersing,diluting,and transferring.At the legal level,the“Oil 2 bills”(the“Oil Supply and Demand Rationalization Act”,the“Act on Emergency Measures for the Stabilization of National Life”,the“Oil Substitution Legislation”,the“Oil storage Legislation”,and the“Energy Conservation Act”and so on)have been designed from the perspectives of“long-term”,“mandatory”,“strategic”and“universal”.In addition,in order to implement the top-level policy system smoothly and effectively,Japan has accordingly designed incentive policies in funds,taxes,rewards and penalties.From empirical facts,the policy system and its interactive coupling at the administrative level,the legal level and the incentive level have laid a foundation for gradually forming a calm and orderly“psychological set”from different angles such as“stability”,“relief”,“ease”and“convenience”.

关 键 词：石油危机 社会危机 心理定势 传导 顶层设计 

分 类 号：F43[经济管理—产业经济] F47