能源价格波动的多维异质性行业风险研究  

Multidimensional Heterogeneous Industry Risk of Energy Price Fluctuation

作　　者：陈太明[1] 林辉 CHEN Taiming;LIN Hui(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2021年第5期51-63,共13页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“财政货币政策宏观经济绩效评价和政策设计”(71273043);国家社会科学基金重大项目“转变经济增长方式的重点和难点:风险分析控制系统和激励机制研究”(12&ZD067)。

摘　　要：基于投入产出价格影响模型,使用中国42部门投入产出表对原油、煤炭、电力、成品油价格波动的异质化行业风险进行测度、排序和多维比较。研究发现:能源价格波动给各行业带来的风险基本上呈现了随时间推移先上升后下降的非线性阶段变化趋势;受能源价格波动的影响较大的主要是化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、金属矿采选业、非金属矿物制品业等重化工业行业。研究结果对于加快转变增长方式具有重要启示,一方面,再次重化工业化使增长方式粗放程度反弹,各行业生产的粗放现状迄今未得到实质性改变,必须继续加快推进增长方式的转变;另一方面,加快转变增长方式过程中必须重点控制重化工业行业的短期风险。Based on the input-output price impact model,this study measures,ranks and multi-dimensionally compares the heterogeneous industry risk of crude oil,coal,electricity and refined oil price fluctuation by using 42 Chinese sectors’input-output tables.The results show that the risk of energy price fluctuation to various industries basically presents a non-linear stage change trend of firstly rising and then falling over time;and that the major industries strongly affected by energy price fluctuation are mainly chemical industry,metal smelting and rolling processing industry,metal ore mining and dressing industry,non-metallic mineral product industry and other heavy chemical industries.The results of this study have important implications for accelerating the transformation of growth mode.On the one hand,heavy chemical industrialization makes the extensive degree of growth mode rebound and the extensive status of production in various industries has not been substantially changed so far,and so the transformation of growth mode must continue to be accelerated.On the other hand,the short-term risk of the heavy chemical industries must be focally controlled in the process of accelerating the transformation of growth mode.

关 键 词：能源价格波动 行业风险 增长方式转变 绿色发展 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]