水稳定同位素示踪的冰川流域水文模拟及不确定性研究——以乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例  

Hydrological simulation traced by water stable isotope and uncertainty analysis in a glacier catchment:taking Glacier No.1 in headwater of Urumqi River as an example

作　　者：何天豪 高红凯 李向应 韩添丁 贺志华 张志才[7] 段峥 刘敏[1,2] 丁永建 HE Tianhao;GAO Hongkai;LI Xiangying;HAN Tianding;HE Zhihua;ZHANG Zhicai;DUAN Zheng;LIU Min;DING Yongjian(School of Geography Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science,Ministry of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Shaanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Surface Systems and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China;School of City and Environment,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China;State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;Centre for Hydrology,University of Saskatchewan,Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9,Saskatchewan,Canada;School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Lund University,Lund 7222,Sweden;China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,CAS-HEC,Islamabad 45320,Pakistan)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [3]西北大学陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,陕西西安710127 [4]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127 [5]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [6]Centre for Hydrology,University of Saskatchewan,Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9,Saskatchewan,Canada [7]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [8]Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Lund University,Lund 7222,Sweden [9]China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,CAS-HEC,Islamabad 45320,Pakistan

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2021年第4期1130-1143,共14页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071081,41801036,41671053,42122002);国家自然科学基金委员会与英国皇家学会合作交流项目(41911530191)资助。

摘　　要：水文模拟不确定性长期以来是制约寒区水文发展的瓶颈问题。水稳定同位素示踪为认识冰川流域径流过程提供了重要“指纹”信息,但仍缺乏有效模型将该信息与冰川水文模型耦合,而且同位素信息对冰川流域水文模型不确定性的约束效果也有待检验。将水稳定同位素信息(δ^(18)O)与冰川流域水文模型FLEXG相耦合,实现对冰川流域水稳定同位素和径流过程的耦合建模(FLEXG-iso),并在乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川流域进行模拟检验和径流分割。结果表明:模型不仅对2013—2016年径流过程有良好的模拟效果,还可以重现水稳定同位素、冰川物质平衡等重要过程。利用水稳定同位素这一辅助数据,提高了模型参数的识别能力,减少了模拟过程中各水源的相互妥协效应和不确定性范围。2013—2016年1号冰川断面径流32%~34%来自融雪,48%~51%来自融冰,0%~7%来自地下水,12%~15%来自降雨径流。水稳定同位素对雪和冰川相关中间过程有明显的约束能力,原有模型对融冰贡献的模拟偏高约7%。FLEXG-iso模型的建立有助于推动寒区水文学理论和方法的发展,以及寒区水资源、生态环境保护等相关决策制定。The hydrological model of glacier basin is an important method to study glacier water resources,but its uncertainty affects its wide application and the ability to support decision-making.Water stable isotope trac⁃ing provides important“fingerprint”information for understanding the runoff process of glacier basins,but there is still a lack of effective models to couple this information with glacier hydrological models,and the effect of stable isotope information on the uncertainty of hydrological models of glacier basins at different time and space scales also needs to be tested.In this study,the water stable isotope information(δ^(18)O)is coupled with the gla⁃cier-hydrological model FLEXG to realize the coupled modeling of the water stable isotope and runoff process(FLEXG-iso)of the glacier basin.We take the catchment of Glacier No.1 in headwater of Urumqi River as the research area.The data used are the temperature,precipitation and runoff data of the Glacier No.1 hydrological station from 2013 to 2016,the stable isotope data(δ^(18)O)of rainfall and runoff measured during the same period,and the Glacier No.1 glacial material balancing data,terrain data and the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory.To compare the effects of stable water isotope information on the quantitative simulation and uncertainty range of runoff process,four schemes with different calibration data design by using the glacier-hydrological model(FLEXG-iso)coupled with water stable isotope information(δ^(18)O).Finally,based on the simulation results,the runoff composition of the Glacier No.1 in headwater of Urumqi River section is analyzed.The results show that:under the four schemes,the model not only has a good simulation of the runoff process during 2013—2016,but also can reproduce important processes such as stable water isotope and glacial mass balance.The use of stable water isotope data for the model calibration test improves the reliability of the simulation results during calibration period and evaluation period,resulting in

关 键 词：水稳定同位素 冰川水文模型 同位素辅助水文模拟 径流分割 乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川 

分 类 号：P338.9[天文地球—水文科学] P343.6[水利工程—水文学及水资源]