中国政府雇员规模扩张及其成因再考:基于1978—2019年时间序列数据的分析  

Reconsidering the Expansion of Governmental Cadres and Workers in China:An Empirical Analysis of the Time Series Data from 1978 through 2019

作　　者：张光[1] 严宇 Zhang Guang;Yan Yu

机构地区：[1]三亚学院财经学院 [2]清华大学政治学系 [3]清华大学数据治理研究中心

出　　处：《公共管理与政策评论》2021年第5期13-32,共20页Public Administration and Policy Review

基　　金：海南省行政管理学会项目“自贸港建设下海南省政府规模和结构优化研究”(项目编号:HNZX202001)。

摘　　要：本文研究中国政府雇员规模扩张及其成因。它接续张光2008年发表于《政治学研究》的论文[1],将数据从1978—2006年延伸至2019年。更长的时间序列数据不但覆盖了自2002年以来的政府雇员持续扩张的趋势,而且在统计上有助于确认影响政府雇员规模扩张的内生性、长期性的因素和外生性、短期性的因素。我们分别估计了三个长期性、内生性的因素的影响,发现公共(预算内)财政行为具有抑制政府雇员规模扩张的长期效应,而非公共(预算外)财政行为具有扩张政府规模的长期和短期效应。财政分权在短期具有抑制作用,长期则无。在外生性和短期性的因素上,我们发现政府精兵简政改革的外部冲击显著地降低了政府雇员规模扩张的趋势。这些发现表明,为抑制政府雇员规模扩张,需要双管齐下,控制公共财政和非公共财政行为,并抑制分税制改革以来不断加大的中央财政集权倾向;在当前财政形势严峻的情况下,甚至有必要重启以精兵简政为目的的行政机构改革。This paper studies the causes of the expansion of the size of cadres and workers of the Chinese governments(SCWCG).As a follow-up of Zhang's 2008 paper in CASS Journal of Political Science,it extends the period under examination from 1978—2006 to 2019.The longer time series data not only cover the steady growth of SCWCG since 2003,but also help to identify long versus short term,as well as endogenetic versus exogenous determinants of the expansion.The effects of three long-term and endogenetic factors are estimated.Budgetary revenues tend to have contain expansion in the long term while extra-budgetary revenue causing expansion in both long and short terms.Fiscal decentralization has controlling effects in the short but not in the long run.Administrative reforms with controlling employment as a main target,coming as short-term and exogenous“shocks”,reduce the size of the SCWCG,or at least stop it from growing for a while.These findings indicate that in order to control the expansion of SCWCG,China need to improve its budgetary and extra-budgetary activities,and restrain the enlarging trend of fiscal centralization under the tax-sharing system.With current serious fiscal pressures,it even becomes a necessity to restart an administrative reform for shrinking governmental employment.

关 键 词：政府扩张决定因素 政府雇员 财政收入 财政分权 行政机构改革 

分 类 号：D630.3[政治法律—政治学]