回归分析法在碳排放核查中测算发电企业燃煤发热量的应用  

The application of regression analysis method to measure the calorific value of coal in power generation enterprises in carbon emission verification

作　　者：沈照人 SHEN Zhaoren(Jiangsu&Nanjing Energy Conservation Center,Nanjing 210007,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省、南京市节能技术服务中心,江苏南京210007

出　　处：《煤质技术》2021年第5期69-74,共6页Coal Quality Technology

基　　金：江苏省工业绿色化发展思路对策研究资助项目(2020GX0901806)。

摘　　要：针对目前我国多数中小型发电企业未使用仪器法测量燃煤低位发热量的现状,为满足国家生态环境部门碳排放核查的要求,对多元线性回归方法在碳排放核查中测算发电企业燃煤发热量的应用进行研究。基于近年来机构检测的48个燃煤样品的各项工业分析数据和低位发热量数据,分析了燃煤各主要成份与燃煤低位发热量的关系,选择合适的自变量,运用多元线性回归方法得到燃煤低位发热量理论测算公式,在此基础上分析了该回归模型的合理性,并使用某发电企业1个月的燃煤化验数据进行验证。模型验证后表明,使用该理论测算公式得到的预测结果具有较高的准确性,可助力推动中小型发电企业碳排放核查工作的顺利开展。In view of the current situation that the instrument method to measure the low calorific value of coal couldn’t be used in most small and medium-sized power generation enterprises,in order to meet the requirements of the national department of ecological environment for carbon emission verification,the application of multiple linear regression method in carbon emission verification to estimate the heat output of coal-fired power plants is studied.The industrial analysis data and low calorific value data of 48 coal samples in recent years have been sorted out,the relationship between the main components of coal and low calorific value of coal has been analyzed,and the appropriate independent variables have been selected,using the multiple linear regression analysis method to obtain the theoretical calculation formula of coal low calorific value.The above analyzed the rationality of the regression model,and verified it with one-month coal-fired laboratory data of a power generation company.Model verification proved that the prediction results obtained by using this formula have high accuracy,which is of great significance to the calculation of low calorific value of coal combustion and the promotion of carbon emission verification smoothly in small and medium-sized power plants.

关 键 词：发热量 回归分析法 碳排放核查 理论测算公式 回归模型 自变量 因变量 

分 类 号：TQ533.4[化学工程—煤化学工程]