基于CF与Logistic回归模型耦合的永嘉县滑坡易发性评价  

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Based on Coupling of CF Model and Logistic Regression Model in Yongjia County

作　　者：刘璐瑶 高惠瑛[1,2] 李照 Liu Luyao;Gao Huiying;Li Zhao(College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;Key Laboratory of Modern Management Information Universities in Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学城市与工程管理信息化山东高校重点实验室,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第10期121-129,共9页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51908523)资助。

摘　　要：在研究永嘉县滑坡孕灾环境的基础上,选取高程、坡度、坡向、距河流距离、距道路距离、距断层距离、地层岩性及归一化植被指数(NDVI)8个评价因子,运用GIS的空间分析功能,采用确定性系数(CF)与Logistic回归耦合模型进行滑坡灾害易发性分析。研究结果表明:距断层距离、坡度、高程、坡向和NVDI是影响滑坡分布的主要因子,研究区被划分为极高易发区(13.24%)、高易发区(14.79%)、中易发区(16.98%)、低易发区(22.59%)和极低易发区(32.41%)。耦合模型的合理性和精确度均符合检验要求,可为当地防灾减灾工作提供一定的参考价值。Yongjia County,located in the southeast of Zhejiang Province,is highly prone to landslides due to its geomorphologic,geologic and hydrologic settings and the aggravation of human engineering activities.Therefore,it is of vital practical significance to conduct the susceptibility evaluation of landslide hazards in Yongjia County.This paper selected 8 evaluation factors including elevation,slope,slope aspect,distance to rivers,distance to roads,distance to faults,lithology and the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)according to pregnant environment of landslides in Yongjia County.Meanwhile,based on GIS spatial analysis,it adopted the coupling model of certainty factor and logistic regression for susceptibility assessment of landslide disasters.The results indicate that distance to faults,slope,elevation,slope aspect and NDVI are the main factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslides.The susceptibility of landslide is divided into extremely high(13.24%),high(14.79%),moderate(16.98%),low(22.59%)and extremely low areas(32.41%).The coupling model of CF and Logistic regression has highly rationality and accuracy,which can provide certain reference value for local disaster prevention and mitigation work.

关 键 词：滑坡 确定性系数模型 LOGISTIC回归模型 耦合模型 易发性评价 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]